South Can Cut Utility Bills, Create Jobs and Conserve Billions of Gallons of Water

According to a new study released today by a team of researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and Duke University’s Nicholas Institute, aggressive adoption of energy efficiency programs in the South[1] would lower utility bills by $41 billion, create 380,000 new jobs, reduce the need for new power plants, and save 8.6 billion gallons of freshwater by 2020.[2]

Total energy demand in the South, where per capita energy consumption is already higher than average, is projected to increase 16 percent from 2010 to 2030.  At the same time, many Southern states spend less on energy efficiency programs than their peer states in other parts of the country.  The research strongly indicates the South’s projected growth in energy consumption need not materialize if the region begins to tap into its tremendous energy efficiency potential.[3]

“An aggressive commitment to energy efficiency could be an economic windfall for the South,” states Dr. Marilyn Brown of the Georgia Institute of Technology and co-lead researcher of the study.  “Such a shift would lower energy bills for cash-strapped consumers and businesses and create more new jobs for Southern workers.”

The energy efficiency policies examined by the research team fall into three broad categories: residential, commercial and industrial. Residential policies include changes to building codes, appliance standards and incentives, weatherization assistance, retrofit incentives and equipment standards.  Commercial building policies include appliance standards and building retrofit incentives.  Industrial policies include plant utility upgrades, process improvement policies, and combined heat and power incentives.

“Energy Efficiency in the South” found that the adoption of aggressive energy-efficiency initiatives in the South would:

Prevent energy consumption from growing over the next 20 years. In the absence of such initiatives, energy consumption in these three sectors is forecast to grow by approximately 16 percent between 2010 and 2030.
 Generate new jobs, cut utility bills and sustain economic growth.  Overall utility bills would be reduced by $41 billion each year in 2020 and $71 billion in 2030; the average residential electricity bills would decline by $26 per month in 2020 and $50 per month in 2030; electricity rate increases would be moderated; and 380,000 new jobs would be created by 2020 (annual job growth increases to 520,000 new jobs in 2030). The region’s economy is anticipated to grow by $1.23 billion in 2020 and $2.12 billion in 2030.
Reduce the need for new power plants.  Almost 25 gigawatts of older power plants would be retired and the construction of up to 50 gigawatts of new plants (equal to the amount of electricity produced by 100 power plants[4]) would be avoided.
Result in substantial water conservation. The reduction in power plant capacity would save southern NERC regions[5] 8.6 billion gallons of freshwater in 2020 and 20.1 billion gallons in 2030.
“The set of energy efficiency policies we examined are also highly cost effective,” said Etan Gumerman of Duke University’s Nicholas Institute and co-lead researcher of the study.  “On average, each dollar invested in energy efficiency over the next 20 years will reap $2.25 in benefits.”

The study was developed using the same state-of-the-art economic modeling tool that the U.S. Energy Information Administration uses in making its annual energy forecasts.  The research team used this tool to compare a “business as usual” scenario with a scenario that included a specific set of energy efficiency investments.  As the findings indicate, the analysis found substantial reductions in energy use, prices, utility bills, water use and carbon emissions in the energy efficiency scenario as compared with business as usual. This study provides a useful estimate of the benefits associated with an aggressive commitment to energy efficiency.  Since it does not include every energy efficiency investment that could be considered, it is by no means an exhaustive measure of the benefits associated with an aggressive commitment to energy efficiency.

“Energy Efficiency in the South” and state profiles that have been developed for each of the states are available on the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) website: www.seealliance.org/programs/research.php. SEEA is a nonprofit organization that promotes energy efficiency in the Southeast.  This project is funded with support from the Energy Foundation (www.ef.org), the Kresge Foundation (www.kresge.org) and the Turner Foundation (www.turnerfoundation.org).



About Marilyn Brown and Georgia Tech:

Marilyn Brown, a professor in the School of Public Policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology, is an internationally-recognized leader in the analysis and interpretation of energy futures in the United States. In 2007, Brown was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize along with the other members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Vice President Al Gore. Additional information about Brown and her research can be found at http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/faculty/mbrown.php.  Brown has been nominated to serve on the Board of the Tennessee Valley Authority and awaits confirmation.  

Georgia Tech’s Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts offers one of the world’s top public policy programs. The research-intensive and globally engaged curriculum aims to solve complex problems in the public interest related to issues of research and technology, energy and sustainability, economic development and governance. The School of Public Policy is dedicated to scholarship and learning that is reflective, effective and sustainable.

About Etan Gumerman and Duke University’s Nicholas Institute:

Etan Gumerman is a scientific engineer at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University.  Prior to joining the Nicholas Institute, Gumerman was employed by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab and served as the lead modeler and analyst for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future Project.  In this role, Gumerman coordinated the efforts of scientists at five national laboratories.

The Nicholas Institute is a nonpartisan institute founded in 2005 to help decision makers in government, the private sector, and the nonprofit community address critical environmental challenges. The Institute responds to the demand for high-quality and timely data and acts as an “honest broker” in policy debates by convening and fostering open, ongoing dialogue between stakeholders on all sides of the issues and providing policy-relevant analysis based on academic research. The Institute’s leadership and staff leverage the broad expertise of Duke University as well as public and private partners worldwide. Since its inception, the Institute has earned a distinguished reputation for its innovative approach to developing multilateral, nonpartisan, and economically viable solutions to pressing environmental challenges.


[1] The study covers “the South” as it is defined by the U.S. Census – the District of Columbia and 16 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.

[2] Bill savings, job creation and water savings #’s are annual numbers as projected in the year 2020.

[3] McKinsey Global Energy and Markets (2009) published an assessment of economic potential for energy efficiency improvements in the United States.  The McKinsey study concluded that the South has the largest energy efficiency resource of any region in the county.  The South accounts for 41 percent of the national potential for energy efficiency improvements.  This contrasts with the Midwest (26 percent), the West (18 percent) and the Northeast (15 percent).

[4] For this calculation, a medium sized (500 megawatt) coal-fired power plant is used for purposes of simplicity.  A larger nuclear power plant produces nearly one gigawatt and a typical natural gas plant produces approximately 300 megawatts.

[5] The North American Electrical Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions covered include all of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri and portions of Kentucky, Virginia, Illinois, Iowa, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas.


By David Terraso

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Economic Recovery Act Boosts Georgia's Economy With $2.5 Billion in Direct Aid, More to Come

Seven provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) provide billions in direct aid that go right into the hands of Georgians hit hardest by the recession, benefiting local communities as well as protecting families.

These provisions account for only about one-fourth of the Act's total funding, yet they are some of the most effective means for generating economic activity, according to Moody's economist Mark Zandi.

In the first nine months of the Recovery Act, which passed in February, five of the seven direct aid provisions sent almost $2.5 billion to Georgia families, the latest report by the Georgia Budget & Policy Institute shows.

"These are difficult times, but the Recovery Act has kept things from being much worse, as our study shows," said Clare S. Richie, a senior policy analyst for the nonpartisan think tank and one of the report's authors. "Thousands of Georgians are getting help making ends meet despite the worst recession in decades."

The study looked at the Recovery Act's increase in food stamp benefits; expansions of the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit; its new Making Work Pay tax credit for workers; three forms of help for unemployed workers; and its one-time payment to retirees, veterans, and people with disabilities. The report details each aid provision and provides county-by-county data for three of the provisions.

"These Recovery Act dollars are doing double duty," said Richie. "Not only are they keeping an estimated 250,000 Georgians out of poverty, but they are also spent quickly and close to home, boosting local businesses and helping them avoid laying off workers."

The Act's provisions are still in effect and more than $1 billion more in direct aid will reach Georgians in 2010. Policymakers designed these provisions to reach a wide range of low- to middle-income Americans not only because they stand the greatest risk of hardship during recessions, but also because they are the most likely to spend quickly whatever money they receive, thereby pumping it into the economy.

"Congress extended the additional unemployment benefits through mid-February," said the co-author and the Institutes' deputy director, Sarah Beth Gehl. "But with unemployment likely to remain high for some time, it will need to extend them further.

"Congress should also consider extending the Act's refundable tax credits for one additional year so they continue to boost the economy and help families as the recovery gets under way."

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Study Shows Atlanta Kills Off Start-Up Companies

Atlanta is poised to become the nation’s poster child for how to kill off a burgeoning industry. A new study by professors at Georgia Tech reveals that the city’s reputation as a high technology center masks a decade of erosion. Though it leads the U.S. in the physical resources that attract and sustain high-tech industry, Atlanta companies haven’t meshed within the local economy.
The result has been a steady migration of companies to other states and an industry profile described by the study as “at best, stagnant.” The findings offer a wake-up call to Atlanta and a roadmap for other regions looking to grow high-tech industry.

Study findings show that 40 percent of Atlanta’s high-tech start-up companies leave for other states within three years. California, New York, New Jersey and Florida are common destinations for Georgia-born IT companies. That, combined with a persistent decline in large IT companies, accounts for the industry malaise.

“Instead of building great high-tech companies, Atlanta has become a feeder system for great high-tech companies in other states,” says study author Dan Breznitz, assistant professor in the Schools of International Affairs and Public Policy within the Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts at Georgia Tech.

Breznitz, and co-author Mollie Taylor of the Enterprise Innovation Institute and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, set out to settle the debate over what induces sustained regional entrepreneurial growth in the high-tech industry - physical resources or business social structure. They focused their research on the Atlanta metropolitan area because it leads the U.S. in the physical factors necessary for developing technological-entrepreneurial clusters: top research universities, a large educated labor pool, a wealth of new technologies and entrepreneurs, a vibrant creative class and generous venture capital financing. Atlanta has also been perceived as having the social business structure needed to induce growth. The study revealed otherwise.

“The metro area excels at incubating high-tech businesses, but it lacks the cohesive business social structure needed to sustain them, so many of the most promising young companies leave the city,” says Breznitz. “Atlanta high-tech companies don’t interlock with each other, and the large companies that control industry in Georgia don’t interlock with the high-tech industry,” says Breznitz, highlighting a complaint that he and Taylor heard consistently from the area’s high-tech workforce.

Analysis of Atlanta’s most promising new companies and the city’s top 50 technology firms revealed little contact either between IT executives with those of Fortune 500 or with other technology companies. CEOs, attorneys and managers in Atlanta IT companies don’t sit on each other’s boards and don’t communicate. The problem isn’t unique to the city’s IT industry, but there are far fewer interlocks within the IT community than in other industries that are successful in the region.

The study identifies the need for policies and institutions that stimulate information sharing, collective learning, access to resources and business community building. It also identifies venture capital industry with true local focus (which Atlanta lacks) as crucial to embedding a company locally. In conclusion, business social variables are crucial for long-term entrepreneurial-technological economic growth, and unless Atlanta’s high-tech industry develops multi-dimensional locally centered social networks, it will continue to stagnate.

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Georgia seniors enter nursing homes later in life thanks to nutritional wellness program

Results from a study on the impact of a Georgia Department of Human Services (DHS) Division of Aging Services (DAS) nutritional wellness program reveals older Georgians are staying in their own homes longer before having to enter a nursing home.

Since state fiscal year 2007, nursing home placements for older adults involved in DAS nutrition programs have been increasingly delayed. In state fiscal year 2008, for example, older adults avoided nursing home placement an average of three years longer than older adults not involved in the program.

“What this really means is that good nutrition is a major factor in keeping older Georgians healthy and more independent,” said Maria Greene, director of DAS. “Our nutrition programs provide healthy meals to thousands of seniors across the state. Since there is a direct link between poor nutrition and chronic health problems, providing older adults access to fresh produce and healthy foods can seriously improve their quality of life.”

The results of the study are part of the Performance Outcomes Measurement Project (POMP), a federal initiative that measures the effectiveness of Title III services, including nutrition programs, for older Americans. The study measured the level of “food insecurity” experienced by participating older Georgians. Food insecurity refers to the limited or uncertain availability of safe, nutritious foods.

The POMP study found that 11.5% of participants in Georgia were experiencing food insecurity. The Division of Aging Services provides a variety of services to older adults to address this issue, including nutrition screening, prepared meals, nutrition education and a Farmer’s Market program that makes fresh, locally grown produce available to seniors.

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New Type of El Niño Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall

El Niño years typically result in fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. But a new study suggests that the form of El Niño may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall, according to climatologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The study appears in the July 3, 2009, edition of the journal Science.

“Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall,” said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

That’s because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning “similar, but different”), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning “little boy” or “Christ child”) is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.

“This new type of El Niño is more predictable,” said Webster. “We’re not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months.”

As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that’s not entirely clear yet, said Webster.

“This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño,” he said. “Or it could be El Niño’s response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure.”

In the study, Webster, along with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim used satellite data along with historical tropical storm records and climate models.

The research team is currently looking at La Niña, the cooling of the surface waters in the Eastern and Central Pacific.

"In the past, La Nina has been associated with a greater than average number of North Atlantic hurricanes and La Nina seems to be changing its structure as well,” said Webster. “We’re vitally interested in understanding why El Niño-L Niña has changed. To determine this we need to run a series of numerical experiments with climate models.”

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Expressing comparisons is possible even without language, researchers find

Making comparisons between objects, like comparing a tiger to a cat, is elemental in the development of a child’s ability to grasp the concept of categories.

Language plays an important part in expressing such comparisons, but even without the ability to speak or sign, deaf children can convey similarity comparisons through gesturing, according to a new article published by a Georgia State University researcher and colleagues.

“What we found was that these deaf children were able to make similarity comparisons by pointing sequentially at two perceptually similar objects,” said Şeyda Özçalışkan, assistant professor of psychology, whose research with Susan Goldin-Meadow and Carolyn Mylander of the University of Chicago, and Dedre Genter of Northwestern University, appears in the journal Cognition.

The deaf children were compared with hearing children during early childhood, examining comparisons made before and after children gained the use of the word “like.”

“In looking at the more detailed aspects of these early comparisons, we found that the deaf children’s comparisons in gestures were similar to the comparisons hearing children express across gesture and speech before they started using the word ‘like,’ such as pointing at a cat while saying the word tiger, ” she said.

As the children grew older, the comparisons diverged — deaf children's comparisons remained broader in nature, while hearing children's comparisons became more complex and focused, such as saying that the hair was brown like a brown crayon, after hearing children started using the word “like.”

The study speaks to a broader question, Özçalışkan said — does language actually have an effect on a person's thinking process?

The study examined data from observations taken by Goldin-Meadow during in the 1970s, when children did not receive sign language training at early ages. Instead, the focus was to get children to attempt to lip read spoken English. In current practice, many deaf children receive cochlear implants which improves their ability to learn spoken language, and deaf children are exposed to conventional sign language early in life.

“I think that learning a word that highlights comparison such as ‘like’ might actually change the kinds of similarity comparisons a child can produce,” Özçalışkan said.

The article, “Does language about similarity play a role in fostering similarity comparison in children?” is published in Cognition, 2009, 112(2), 217-228.

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Dry autumns and winters may lead to fewer tornadoes in the spring, according to new analysis of long-term data

Global warming will likely mean more unpredictable weather, scientists say, and a new study by researchers at the University of Georgia pins down, possibly for the first time, how drought conditions in an area’s fall and winter may effect tornado activity the following spring.
The study, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, is specific to Georgia and the Southeast, but further study could reveal patterns that might make this more general—including the already tornado-prone Great Plains.

“Our results suggest that there is a statistically significant reduction in tornado activity during a tornado season following drought the preceding fall and winter,” said Marshall Shepherd, a meteorologist and lead author of the study. On the other hand, wet autumns and winters examined in the study had nearly twice as many spring tornado days as drought years did.

The research gives hope that one day meteorologists and climatologists may be able to predict the severity of a spring tornado season the way they now do for hurricanes. Other authors of the paper were Thomas Mote, also of the University of Georgia, and Dev Niyogi of Purdue University. Shepherd and Mote are in department of geography in the UGA Franklin College of Arts and Sciences.

The genesis for the research was the severe Atlanta tornado in March 2008, and Shepherd’s interest in how tornadoes form during severe drought years.

While such tools as Doppler radar have increased our ability to “see” tornadoes as they form, predicting a tornado season’s potential severity has remained elusive. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected in 2007 that the frequency and severity of droughts may increase over time, but very little is known about drought conditions affect the frequency or intensity of severe weather hazards such as tornadoes.

To help understand how fall and winter weather might affect spring tornado seasons, the research team acquired the historical database of severe thunderstorms and tornado occurrences from 1951-2006 from the Storm Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They also analyzed storm data reports from the National Climactic Data Center and meteorological drought conditions using historical rain gauge and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Using a number of tools of scientific analysis, the team primarily focused on tornado activity from March-June in Georgia and the Southeast. What they found was shocking, Shepherd said, yet plausible.

On average, wet autumns and winters presaged nearly twice as many spring tornado days in the study area as prior drought seasons. Springs following wet winters and falls were also five to six times more likely to have multiple tornado days than antecedent drought years.

“We do not suggest that soil moisture or precipitation the previous fall and winter exert a direct control on which individual storms will spawn tornadoes,” said Shepherd. “But these long-term seasonal relationships in the study area are striking.”

Correlating historical records and tornado activity has been difficult at best for scientists over the years. For one thing, the National Weather Service did not implement its watch and warning system until the mid-1950s, and only with advent of advanced radar techniques and ground examination of storm sites have researchers been able to say categorically that a certain storm even was a tornado. Also, studies linking tornadic activity with the El Niño cycle have been contradictory.

While it clearly seems that wet falls and winters lead to more severe spring tornado seasons, antecedent seasonal drought scenarios in north Georgia were almost never associated with above-normal tornadic activity the following spring over the 50-years period of the study.

The results for north Georgia were essentially replicated for the larger region encompassing Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. For this entire region, a stunning 75 percent of years characterized by meteorological drought in falls and winters had below-normal tornado seasons in the spring.

While the new study, which was supported by grants from NASA, offers strong clues about how spring tornado seasons form, the authors urge caution in interpreting the findings until the analysis is repeated for other locations.

Just how the connection works between fall-winter rainfall and spring tornado seasons remains unclear. One possibility is that the atmosphere uses soil moisture “memory” from the fall and winter to modify conditions suitable for severe weather. A related hypothesis is related to “soil moisture” pockets and storm initiation.

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Exploring the million-year origins of laughter by tickling apes

Laughing seems to be older than humanity itself, according to new research published this week by a team of international researchers, including a Georgia State University scientist.

Michael Owren, associate professor of psychology and neuroscience, was part of a team led by Marina Davila Ross, of the University of Portsmouth in England, with Elke Zimmerman of the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover in Germany, which analyzed the recorded sounds made by young apes, as well as human infants, when tickled.

The study was published online last week in Current Biology.

Davila Ross went to zoos in Europe and Asia to record the vocalizations made from orangutans, gorillas, bonobos and chimpanzees when tickled. The results were then taken to Georgia State, where she and Owren analyzed the acoustics of the samples.

The vocalizations of the species — humans’ closest evolutionary relatives — have different characteristics. For example, while humans make a continuously egressive sound in the form of a “haa haa haa,” without breathing in, chimpanzees make a pant-like sound, breathing in and out, Owren said.

The scientists conducted a phylogenetic analysis based on the acoustics of all of the vocalizations to reconstruct an evolutionary “family tree.” Usually, such an analysis is based on genetics, where scientists try to reconstruct the likely divergence in the evolution of species. Scientists believe that humans and the other great apes share a common ancestor.

“We already know what the phylogenetic tree looks like for these five species,” Owren explained. “This gave us the opportunity to ask, ‘if we make the same phylogenetic reconstruction based on acoustics, would we come out with the same tree?’”

The acoustical data independently produced a tree identical to the tree produced by genetic data, suggesting that the sounds derive from a common ancestor living somewhere between 10 to 16 million years ago.

“This then makes us comfortable to call these vocalizations laughter because they seem to have a common origin,” he said.

In examining the five species, human and chimpanzee laughter stand out from the other primates. Owren said it seems that during human and chimpanzee evolution, specialization occurred in opposite directions — where humans exhale and form vowel-like sounds, but chimpanzees pant, alternating between ingressive and egressive airflow.

Other species do something in between, as some alternate, and some produce consecutive sounds from egressive airflow.

Also during evolution, humans might have evolved from making very noisy, harsh sounding laughter, to producing a regular and stable vocalization, he said.

The results from this study lead to other evolutionary questions — why each species’ laughter evolved into their current forms, and what advantages the different acoustical features might give.

“The study gives us more specific information on which to begin to think about what the function of laughter was in the common ancestor of all these species, and how the function of laughter may have changed in early humans to produce differences in acoustics,” Owren said.

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Study shows increased symptoms lead mentally ill to become victims of violence

Contrary to common stereotypes, individuals with major mental disorders are more likely to become victims of violent crimes when they are experiencing an increase in symptoms than they are to commit crime, according to a new study by Brent Teasdale, an assistant professor of criminal justice at Georgia State University.

Teasdale found that patients experiencing delusions, hallucinations and generally worsening symptoms are most likely to become victims of violence. In addition, individuals with mental disorders are particularly vulnerable for victimization during times of homelessness and when suffering from alcohol abuse.

“They actually have higher rates of victimization than they have of violence commission, which I think is counter to the stereotype that highly symptomatic, obviously delusional, visibly mentally disordered people are dangerous, unpredictable and violent,” Teasdale said. “There’s no one size fits all approach to these delusions, but the odds of victimization are multiplied almost by a factor of two when a person experiences these delusions.”

Teasdale analyzed data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study, a longitudinal study of psychiatric patients released from three psychiatric hospitals in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Mo., and Worchester, Mass. During the MacArthur study, participants were interviewed every 10 weeks for one year about violence committed against them, stress, symptoms and social relationships.

When individuals with mental disorders experience increases in delusions, symptom severity and alcohol problems they may be more focused on their internal states and have fewer cognitive resources available to devote to interactions with other people, Teasdale said. Other research suggests that victimization happens because caretakers may be driven away, leaving the disordered unprotected.

“If the stigma is that those are people we need to protect ourselves from, one of the ways in which we might do that is self defensive violence. We might strike first and that would lead to the victimization of these folks,” Teasdale said. “If there’s a person that could intercede before that happens, that may be one strategy for reducing victimization risk.”

The findings of the study are important for clinicians who must pay attention to warning signs of worsening disorders as potential risk markers for violent behavior committed by their client, Teasdale said. They could also aid in the creation of assessment tools that focus on victimization risk and classes that better educate families about caring for the mentally ill.

Clinicians also could provide clients suggestions for reducing victimization risk when they notice patients exhibiting greater than usual symptoms, Teasdale said. For instance, during these times clinicians may recommend spending less time in public spaces, increases in guardianship or mandated community treatment programs.

“Most of us know people who have mental disorders. These are our family members and our friends and so we should care about their victimization experience,” Teasdale said. “The stereotypes persist because people are unaware of the victimization risk to people with mental illness. If they learned that victimization risk were higher than the violence commission rates, I think that would help alleviate some of that stigma and help people think about people with mental disorders in a different way.”

The study, “Mental Disorder and Violent Victimization,” was published in the 2009 edition of Criminal Justice and Behavior.

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Study Focuses on Barriers to Successful Prisoner Re-Entry Into Atlanta Communities

One out of every 100 Americans is incarcerated. One in 13 adults in Georgia is either in jail or on probation and parole, and the state holds the fifth largest prison population in the nation.

Hundreds of prisoners are released and return to metro-Atlanta neighborhoods every month. For Emory's Office of University-Community Partnerships, which has worked with dozens of community groups, services organizations, policy makers and government leaders for nearly a decade, issues around incarceration are a big piece of the puzzle in developing strategies to build strong communities.

"In many ways, the success or recidivism of former inmates has a tremendous impact on the communities where they settle, but given the stigma attached,.....http://gapublicsafety.blogspot.com/2009/03/study-focuses-on-barriers-to-successful.html

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Georgia State Study First to Pinpoint Why Analgesic Drugs May be Less Potent in Females than in Males

Investigators at Georgia State University’s Neuroscience Institute and Center for Behavioral Neuroscience are the first to identify the most likely reason analgesic drug treatment is usually less potent in females than males. This discovery is a major step toward finding more effective treatments for females suffering from persistent pain.

“Opioid-based narcotics (such as morphine) are the most widely prescribed therapeutic agents for the alleviation of persistent pain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear....More

UGA Program to Deter Youth Alcohol Use Also Reduces Conduct Problems, Study Finds

A University of Georgia program designed to reduce alcohol use, drug use and risky sexual behavior in African-American youth also reduces the likelihood of engaging in conduct problems by up to 74 percent two years later, according to a new study.

The finding, published in the Journal of Adolescent Health, is the latest in a series of studies that demonstrate the effectiveness of the Strong African-American Families (SAAF, pronounced “safe”) Program, which is increasingly being adopted across Georgia and nationwide.

“A lot of programs show benefits in close proximity to the intervention, but many fewer—and none with African-American populations—show benefits one, two or more years after the intervention,” said study co-author Gene Brody, director of the UGA Center for Family Research, part of the UGA Institute for Behavioral Research, and Regents Professor in the College of Family and Consumer Sciences. “Previous research has shown benefits of SAAF up to six years later.”

Developed by Brody and Professor Velma McBride Murry, SAAF is based on more than 20 years of research that has identified parenting and care-giving practices that allow low-income, African-American families living in rural areas to raise children who are successful despite the challenges that stem from poverty, racism and a lack of social services. The program consists of seven weekly meetings that include concurrent, hour-long, sessions for pre-adolescent youth and their parents followed by a joint session in which the families practice the skills they’ve learned.

Rather than lecturing to participants, SAAF facilitators engage them with specially designed videos, activities and games. Parents learn how to actively monitor, communicate and emotionally support their children and adolescents. Youth learn to set goals, manage peer pressure and appreciate their parents and other adults in their lives. In the joint sessions, the parents and youth participate in activities that help strengthen their relationships and instill pride in being African American.

The average age of youth in the program is 11, Brody said, and this pre-adolescent period is a critical point in development when youth start thinking about experimenting with alcohol and other substances and become more susceptible to peer pressure.

First implemented in 2001, the SAAF program is expanding to eight Georgia counties and is being adopted by the city of Denver. Brody and his colleagues have conducted several studies that compare the outcomes of hundreds of program participants with members of a control group. The researchers have found that among program participants:

Alcohol use was reduced by 28 percent two years following the intervention and 25 percent six years later;
Sexual behavior and marijuana use decreased;
Caregiver depression was reduced;
The likelihood of youth with low self control engaging in conduct problems decreased by 74 percent two years later.

Brody points out that the SAAF program is grounded in intensive research on successful parenting, but also benefits from the input of African Americans living in the communities that the program is designed to serve.

“In every step of the development of SAAF, a focus group of African-American parents and youth was convened,” Brody said. “We would develop intervention targets with community members and, after the curriculum was written, would get additional feedback to make sure we were on the right track. It really was a partnership between the rural African-American community and our research center.”

The research was supported by grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and the National Institute of Mental Health.

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Comprehensive Analysis of Georgia Nonprofit Sector Released

Collaboration between Georgia State University and the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University has resulted in the most comprehensive analysis ever made of Georgia’s nonprofit sector and the giving patterns of Georgians.

Funded by grants from the Wilbur and Hilda Glenn Family Foundation, and coordinated by Atlanta fund raising firm Alexander Haas, these two studies – Georgia Gives and Nonprofit Georgia – examined giving patterns throughout the state, as well as comparative analysis of giving in Atlanta and other urban, suburban and rural areas of the state.

“Georgians have always been generous, and these two studies provide evidence that the tradition continues today,” said David H. King, president of Alexander Haas. “Individuals in Georgia gave an estimated $5.58 billion in 2007 to meet vital needs and improve the quality of life in our communities and rural areas throughout the state and gave more than the national averages” he said.

Among the key findings of Georgia Gives:

Georgia’s total charitable giving by individuals, foundations and corporations in 2007 is estimated to be more than $6.7 billion. Individual donors statewide ($2,381) and in Atlanta ($2,492) gave more on average than donors nationally ($2,247) in 2007
60 percent of household donations in 2007 came from the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes 54 percent of the state’s population.
86 percent of Atlantans reported making gifts to charity in 2007, compared with 70.2 percent nationally and 68 percent in the rest of the state
55.5 percent of household donations in 2007 went to religious organizations, which is slightly lower than the national level of 61 percent.

The next largest share of Georgia household contributions (14 percent) was given to public-society benefit organizations such as United Way, compared to 10 percent of contributions nationally.

In 2007, corporate giving in Georgia is was estimated at $503 million.

“This report shows that individuals, foundations and corporations all play a critical role in supporting Georgia’s thriving nonprofit sector,” said Patrick M. Rooney, interim executive director of the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University. “Georgia’s more than 1,400 independent, operating and community foundations gave an estimated total of $615.8 million to charity in 2006,” he added.

Among the key findings of Nonprofit Georgia:

Georgia’s Public Charities
7,119 public charities in Georgia filed with the IRS in 2005. Total revenues in these charities amounted to $24.7 billion, up 36% in inflation-adjusted dollars from 2000.

Fulton and DeKalb counties had a combined 2,429 charities.

There were 12 counties with no reporting charities, and over one-third of all Georgia counties had fewer than five.

The “urban-rural” divide in nonprofit resources is different than the “haves and have not” divide primarily because the lowest poverty rates in the state are in suburban counties. The 40 counties in Georgia with the highest poverty rates had an average $460 in public support per capita, while the 40 counties with the lowest poverty rates had $127. Similarly, the 40 counties with the highest poverty rates had an average $357 in government grants per capita, while the 40 with the lowest poverty rates had $41.

On various, commonly accepted measures of financial health, public charities in rural counties appeared to be somewhat healthier than those in urban counties. This suggests that although there are fewer nonprofit organizations and revenues in rural areas, the nonprofits that are operating there are sound, and are relatively good risks for philanthropic investment.

Georgia’s Foundation Grant-Making

Georgia foundations are largely clustered around core urban areas in the state. While Fulton and DeKalb counties combined had 722, or 46%, of Georgia’s foundations in 2005, 53 of Georgia’s 159 counties—most of them rural—had no foundations.

The majority (more than 70 percent) of grant dollars from Georgia-based foundations remain in the state of Georgia.

Georgia foundations tend to give to the communities closest to their headquarters. The majority of grant dollars that go to rural counties originate in rural counties and the majority of grant dollars that go to urban counties originate in urban counties.

According to Dennis R. Young, Bernard B. and Eugenia A. Ramsey Professor of Private Enterprise, and Director of the Nonprofit Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University: “Georgia’s nonprofit sector has a powerful potential to transform the social and economic landscape of Georgia, but little is known about the capacity of the sector and the nature of its impact. Our Nonprofit Georgia study is intended to contribute to that understanding.”

Complete information on the Georgia Gives study can be accessed on the web at www.georgiagives.com and more information on The Center on Philanthropy at www.philanthropy.iupui.edu.

Nonprofit Georgia study information can be accessed on the website of the Nonprofit Studies Program of Georgia State University at www.aysps.gsu.edu/nonprofit.

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New CDC Study Finds Community Physical Activity Programs Are Money Well Spent

Community-based physical activity interventions designed to promote more active lifestyles among adults are cost-effective in reducing heart disease, stroke, colorectal and breast cancers, and type 2 diabetes, according to a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Using a rigorous economic model developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of community-based physical activity interventions, the study found these interventions to be cost-effective; reducing new cases of many chronic diseases and improving quality of life.

Researchers found that community-based physical activity programs appeared to reduce new cases of disease by: 5-15 cases per 100,000 people for colon cancer; 15-58 cases per 100,000 for breast cancer; 59-207 cases per 100,000 for type 2 diabetes; and 140-476 cases per 100,000 for heart disease.

Community-based physical activity interventions broadly fall under the following strategies:

-- Community campaigns such as mass communication efforts (TV/radio,
newspapers, billboards, advertisements).
-- Social support networks such as exercise groups to encourage behavior
change.
-- Tailored behavior change to encourage people to set physical activity
goals and monitor their individual progress.
-- Enhanced access to services that support active lifestyles such as
fitness centers, bike paths and walking trails.


"Our study found that public health strategies that promote physical activity are cost effective, and compared with other well-accepted prevention strategies, such as treatment for high cholesterol or motor vehicle air bags, offer good value for the money spent," said Larissa Roux, M.D., Ph.D., lead author of the study.

The study, "Cost Effectiveness of Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention," is being published in the online version of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

"This study supports the value and effectiveness of the physical activity interventions that were studied," said William Dietz, M.D., Ph.D., director of CDC's Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity. "This study also shows the importance of the new physical activity guidelines put forth last month by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services."

The HHS guidelines recommend:
-- Two and a half hours each week of moderate-intensity aerobic activity,
such as brisk walking or,
-- An hour and 15 minutes each week of vigorous-intensity aerobic
activity such as jogging or running.


In addition, all adults should include muscle strengthening activities that work all the major muscle groups on two or more days per week.

CDC's Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity funds programs in 23 states designed to prevent obesity and promote healthy lifestyle habits such as physical activity.

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UGA Study Reveals Ecosystem-Level Consequences of Frog Extinctions

In some parts of the tropics, frogs are the most abundant land vertebrates. This peculiar-looking casque-headed tree frog is one of the estimated hundreds of species of tropical frogs.

Photo by Scott Connelly/UGA

Streams that once sang with the croaks, chirps and ribbits of dozens of frog species have gone silent. They’re victims of a fungus that’s decimating amphibian populations worldwide.

Such catastrophic declines have been documented for more than a decade, but until recently scientists knew little about how the loss of frogs alters the larger ecosystem. A University of Georgia study that is the first to comprehensively examine an ecosystem before and after an amphibian population decline has found that tadpoles play a key role keeping the algae at the base of the food chain productive.

“Many things that live in the stream depend on algae as a base food resource,” said lead author Scott Connelly, a doctoral student who will graduate in December from the UGA Odum School of Ecology. “And we found that the system was more productive when the tadpoles were there.”

The results, which appear in the early online edition of the journal Ecosystems, demonstrate how the grazing activities of tadpoles help keep a stream healthy. The researchers found that while the amount of algae in the stream was more than 250 percent greater after the amphibian population decline, the algae were less productive at turning sunlight and nutrients into food for other members of the ecosystem. Without tadpoles swimming along the streambed and stirring up the bottom, the amount of sediment in the stream increased by nearly 150 percent, blocking out sunlight that algae need to grow.

The study is part of a larger effort known as the Tropical Amphibian Declines in Streams (TADS) project, which also involves researchers from Southern Illinois University, Drexel University and the University of Alabama. The project is now in its third round of funding by the National Science Foundation and was initiated by Catherine Pringle (UGA Odum School of Ecology) and Karen Lips (Southern Illinois University) in 2000 through a Small Grant for Exploratory Research (SGER) from the NSF. Connelly and Pringle are monitoring in-stream effects of the population decline on algae, while other team members are studying how the loss of frogs impacts other organisms and the transfer of energy between streams and the terrestrial communities that surround them. Preliminary data show that the number of snakes that feed on frogs, for example, has plummeted after the population decline.

“We were there before, during and after the extinction event and were able to look at the ecosystem and measure how it changed,” said Pringle, Distinguished Research Professor in the Odum School and study co-author. “Very rarely have scientists been able to do that with respect to any organism.”

The chytrid fungus responsible for declines has steadily marched southeast across Costa Rica and through much of Panama like a storm front, killing up to 90 percent of frogs in afflicted streams. In 2003, the team set up research sites on two streams in the pristine and lush highlands of Panama. One study site had already suffered a catastrophic amphibian decline, while the other had a healthy population but, based on its location, was directly in the path of the fungal disease.

In the first stage of their research, Connelly and Pringle assessed ecosystem changes that occur when tadpoles are experimentally excluded from small areas of both the healthy stream and the frogless stream. They found that the absence of the tadpoles resulted in more sediment and less productive algae.

In late 2004, frogs in the formerly healthy stream began dying. The team reassessed the stream and found that impact of the frog die-off was even greater than they had predicted in their exclusion studies. “We predicted the direction of the change,” Pringle said, “but underestimated its magnitude.”

The UGA research team is continuing to monitor the health of the streams to get valuable, long-term data. So far the stream has not rebounded. “It’s still sad going back,” Connelly said, to which Pringle added: “Once the frogs die, it’s like an incredible silence descends over the whole area. It’s eerie.”

To date, scientists have not found a way to stop the spread of the fungus in the wild. Broadly applying a fungicide to an entire watershed, Connelly said, would kill beneficial fungi that are necessary for a healthy ecosystem.

But scientists can cure individual frogs in captivity by simply swabbing them with a fungicide. Connelly has worked to protect frogs through Amphibian Ark, a global effort supported by zoos, botanical gardens, aquariums and research institutions that aims to ensure the survival of amphibians by collecting and breeding them. The Atlanta Botanical Garden is one of the key breeding sites.

“The one speck of hope is that if we’re able to collect some of these rare animals, we can cure them,” Connelly said. “As long as we have the money to keep a breeding program going, in the future it might be possible to reintroduce them into the wild.”

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GT Study: Behavior of Online Reviewers Affects Their Credibility

Consumers increasingly rely on recommendations in online forums, such as Amazon.com and Angieslist.com, when deciding which products and services to buy. But, in most cases, they've never met the posters of these reviews.

Without traditional cues to assess the credibility of reviewers, people evaluate not only the content of opinions, but also the online behavior of posters, according to a recent article in the Journal of Marketing Research titled “Listening to Strangers.”

Factors influencing the perceived value of reviews include posters’ speed of response to queries, the length of their opinions, back-and-forth dialogue, and a reputation for successfully answering others’ queries, found the researchers.

The study was conducted by Nicholas Lurie, assistant professor of marketing at Georgia Tech College of Management, and Allen Weiss and Deborah MacInnis, marketing professors at the University of Southern California.

"Imagine that you send an e-mail to members of your neighborhood association asking for recommendations for painters. How do you decide whose recommendation to trust?,” Lurie asks. “Our study suggests that you are likely to give greater weight to those who respond quickly, write a lengthy response, and engage you in a back-and-forth discussion.”

In addition to finding that reviewers’ current behavior affects value perceptions, the researchers found that previous reviews can help or hurt depending on whether information seekers want to make a decision about buying a particular product/service or just learn more about the options.

If information seekers want to learn more about a particular topic, such as important features to consider when buying a digital camera, they value recommendations from information providers who have made multiple contributions on the same subject. But they tend to discount advice from people whose posting history shows recommendations made across a wide variety of topics.

The reverse is true when information seekers have moved from the learning stage to the decision-making point. When people aim to make a decision, they value posters who've made recommendations across a wide variety of topics.

For example, in an online marketing forum, a CEO with a decision-making orientation who needs help choosing between different sales-force automation software packages might value information from an advisor with a wide range of interests more than the recommendations of someone with highly specialized expertise.

The researchers also found that receiving large amounts of information is more important for individuals with a learning goal than for decision-makers.

"Our results suggest that it is critical for marketers (as providers of information) to discern whether potential customers have a learning or a decision-making goal,” write the researchers. “Making strategic choices about how to respond to customer inquiries and from whom such responses should come is particularly relevant to current marketing environments in which communication is customer initiated.”

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New Report Estimates More than 2 million Cases of Tobacco-related Cancers Diagnosed in the United States During 1999-2004

About 2.4 million cases of tobacco-related cancers were diagnosed in the United States from 1999 to 2004, with lung and bronchial cancer accounting for almost half of these diagnoses, according to a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In the most comprehensive assessment to date, the study marks the first time CDC has reported on all tobacco-related cancers for more than 90 percent of the population.

“The data in this report provides additional, strong evidence of the serious harm related to tobacco,” said Sherri Stewart, Ph.D., in CDC′s Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, who is lead author of the study. “We′ve long known tobacco was associated with lung and laryngeal cancer, but this study gives us even greater clarity. The rates for these two cancers were highest in areas with the highest prevalence of tobacco use.”

The Surgeon General has found tobacco use causes these cancers: lung and bronchial, laryngeal, oral cavity and pharyngeal, esophageal, stomach, pancreatic, kidney and renal pelvis, urinary bladder, cervical and acute myelogenous leukemia (AML).

Though tobacco is a major cause for all the cancers presented in this report, not all cases of cancer studied could be linked directly to tobacco use. Some of these cancers have several important risk factors such as infections or genetic factors that can operate in concert with, or independently, of tobacco. In addition, information on tobacco use was not available in these databases. Therefore, some cases of cancer included in this report may not be attributable to tobacco use.
Key Findings:

Age-adjusted rates are presented in parentheses where appropriate and are per 100,000 persons.

* The incidence of tobacco-related cancers was higher among black and non-Hispanic populations, and among men, which reflect patterns of tobacco use.
* Lung, laryngeal, and cervical cancer incidence rates were highest in the South, where the highest prevalence of smoking exists. Kentucky had the highest rates of lung cancer among men and women (133.2 and 75.5, respectively), the third highest rate of laryngeal cancers among men (9.7) and the highest rate of laryngeal cancer among women (2.6). Kentucky had the highest prevalence of current smoking (28.6 percent).
* States with the lowest smoking rates are in the West: Utah (10.4 percent), California (18.5 percent), and Montana (18.5 percent). Cancer incidence rates were consistently lowest in the West for all the cancers, with the exception of stomach cancer.
* In 2004, lung and bronchial cancer incidence rates were highest among men in the South (97.9) and lowest in the West (66.0); Among women, rates were similar in the South, Midwest, and Northeast regions (55.3–56.4) and were lowest in the West (48.1)
* In 2004, laryngeal cancer incidence rates were highest among men in the South (8.4) region of the United States and lowest in the West (4.8). Among women, rates were similar in the South, Midwest, and Northeast (1.6–1.7) and were lowest in the West (1.1).
* The high incidence rates of both lung and laryngeal cancer in the South are consistent with smoking patterns and reflect the strong association of these cancers with tobacco use.

The report also noted other cancers associated with tobacco use (pancreas, urinary bladder, esophagus, kidney, stomach, cervix, and AML) accounted for more than 1 million cases diagnosed.

“Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of disease and premature death in the United States and the most prominent cause of cancer,” said Matthew McKenna, M.D., M.P.H., director, CDC′s Office on Smoking and Health. “The tobacco-use epidemic causes a third of the cancers in America. If proven strategies were fully implemented to decrease tobacco use, much of the suffering and death that cancer inflicts on families and communities could be prevented.”

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