New Type of El Niño Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall

El Niño years typically result in fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. But a new study suggests that the form of El Niño may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall, according to climatologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The study appears in the July 3, 2009, edition of the journal Science.

“Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall,” said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

That’s because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning “similar, but different”), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning “little boy” or “Christ child”) is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.

“This new type of El Niño is more predictable,” said Webster. “We’re not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months.”

As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that’s not entirely clear yet, said Webster.

“This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño,” he said. “Or it could be El Niño’s response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure.”

In the study, Webster, along with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim used satellite data along with historical tropical storm records and climate models.

The research team is currently looking at La Niña, the cooling of the surface waters in the Eastern and Central Pacific.

"In the past, La Nina has been associated with a greater than average number of North Atlantic hurricanes and La Nina seems to be changing its structure as well,” said Webster. “We’re vitally interested in understanding why El Niño-L Niña has changed. To determine this we need to run a series of numerical experiments with climate models.”

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Severe Weather Preparedness Still Needed, October Predicted to Remain Active Hurricane Month

PRNewswire/ -- October is predicted to be another rough hurricane and strong tropical storm month, according to national weather forecasters, so there is plenty of bad weather lurking as we move into the fall and winter months.

Brigade Quartermasters, a supplier of emergency and survival equipment for the military and law enforcement, is advising homeowners and business owners to take severe weather preparedness a step further than extra water and batteries -- especially if it means evacuation, travel and/or living without power for an extended period of time.

"Severe weather this time of year such as tornadoes, thunderstorms and flooding can cause power outages and extensive damage to homes and businesses. These storms should not be taken lightly when it comes to stockpiling emergency provisions," said Mitchell L. WerBell, IV, President of Brigade Quartermasters.

"It goes without saying that hurricane and major storm preparation should include back up reserves of food, water and battery-operated power. What catches people by surprise is when they realize living away from home or without power for a long period of time requires the same provisions you might take on a camping trip," he said.

WerBell suggests families take note of how members of the armed services and law enforcement agencies are trained and equipped to survive in remote locations and hazardous weather. His top-10 list of must-have items for anyone without power or required to evacuate a storm includes:

1. Weather radio and/or emergency radio
2. Bags/duffels/travel gear
3. Ponchos/rain gear/insulated coats
4. Bedding (blankets, cots, sleeping bags)
5. Flashlights/batteries/emergency lamp/light sticks
6. Camp tools (cutting, digging, shoveling)
7. Water/fuel storage containers/water purification tablets
8. Hydration packs/containers
9. Cell phone/laptop accessories (chargers, zip drives)
10. GPS receiver/compass


"Hopefully you won't be inconvenienced or away from home for too long, but it's smart to have quick access to proper supplies should an emergency occur," said WerBell, whose company offers a severe weather information and preparedness section on its Web site at www.brigadeqm.com.

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Georgia Launches Hurricane Preparedness Website

GEORGIA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEBSITE: http://www.gadoe.org/hurricane.aspx

With hurricane season upon us in full force, the Georgia Department of Education has launched a Hurricane Preparedness website for Georgia's schools.

The website contains information and links that will be helpful to schools as they prepare for the possibility of severe weather and the impact it could have on schools.

"As a state, we must be prepared for the impact that severe weather, like hurricanes, can have on our schools and school systems," said State Superintendent of Schools Kathy Cox. "This website will serve as a clearinghouse of information should schools have to cancel classes, take emergency safety precautions or enroll students evacuated from other areas of the state or the country."

The Hurricane Preparedness website will be updated as necessary and will remain live throughout the school year.

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News to Use in Fayetteville, Savannah, Atlanta and all of Georgia

Hurricane Bertha Weakening

Bertha, after briefly becoming a major hurricane, is now weakening. It's moving toward the northwest at about 10 mph and at 11 a.m. EDT was centered about 975 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Continued weakening is likely over the next day or two, as is a further slowing of its forward motion and a turn to a more north-northwest track.

The factors in Bertha's weakening include upper-level wind shear, the ingestion of drier air and a path over somewhat cooler water.

There are additional indications now that Bertha will eventually turn to a north-northeast course and miss Bermuda to the east. Residents of that island should continue to closely monitor the hurricane's progress, however.

Elsewhere, there are no disturbances of interest in either the tropical Atlantic or eastern Pacific Basins.

Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
10:46 a.m. ET

"Major" Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha (115 mph) has intensified rapidly.

Bertha, as of 5 p.m. EDT, was centered about 730 miles ENE of the northern Leeward Islands and moving toward the WNW at 12 mph. A turn to a more NW track with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

The hurricane may grow in size as its forward motion decelerates.

It still appears as if Bertha will eventually take a more northerly course and miss the East Coast of the U.S. Bermuda, however, could be threatened. Residents of the island are advised to pay close attention to the hurricane's progress.

By Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Active 2008 Hurricane Season Predictions Reinforce the Need to Prepare

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced recently that projected climate conditions point to a near normal or above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. The prediction was issued at a news conference which urged residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared for the onset of hurricane season, which begins June 1. In addition, the 2008 outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

“Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.”

The American Red Cross urges the public to renew hurricane preparedness, sensing that it may not be top of mind after two uneventful hurricane seasons. It is recommended that everyone dust off their disaster supplies kit and get better prepared now for a variety of disasters such as hurricanes and the high winds, flooding and tornadoes that may accompany them.

“By taking three basic preparedness actions you can get “Red Cross Ready” for disasters and other emergencies 1) Get a kit, 2) Make a plan and 3) Be informed,” said Mary S. Elcano, Acting President and CEO of the American Red Cross. “The Red Cross is also here to help you get prepared for specific disasters like hurricanes. Even if you took action to prepare last hurricane season, it’s important that you revisit and update your communication plan and check your disaster supplies kit for expired items.”

The American Red Cross recommends the following preparedness actions:

Get or assemble a disaster supplies kit:

Gather enough emergency supplies to meet your needs. A portable kit, stored in a sturdy, easy to carry, water resistant container should have enough supplies for three days. The Red Cross also recommends having at least two weeks worth of supplies at home and to keep a smaller kit in the trunk of your car. Check your kit and replace the stock every six months. Whether you purchase a kit or choose to build your own, your kit should include:

A three-day supply of water (one gallon per person, per day) and ready-to-eat non-perishable foods, such as tuna fish, peanut butter, crackers, canned fruit, juice boxes, etc.
A manual can opener
A battery-powered or hand-crank radio, flashlight and plenty of extra batteries
A first aid kit and reference guide
Prescription and non-prescription medication items
Copies of important documents, including birth certificates, insurance policies and social security cards
Cash. ATMs and credit cards won’t work if the power is out.
Special items for infant, elderly or disabled family members
A change of clothes for everyone, including long-sleeved shirts, long pants and sturdy footwear
One blanket or sleeping bag per person
Emergency tools, including tools to turn off utilities
An extra set of home and car keys
An extra pair of glasses or contact lenses, extra batteries for hearing aids
Pet supplies

Prepare a Personal Disaster and Evacuation Plan

The American Red Cross urges each and every household to develop a household disaster plan.

Meet with your family to create a plan. Discuss the information you have gathered and why it is important to prepare for a disaster.

Identify two meeting places; One right outside your home in case of a sudden emergency, like a fire, and one outside your neighborhood in case you can’t return home.

Be sure to make advanced preparations for your pets. Be aware that pets may not be allowed in shelters. Contact hotels, motels, family members and animal shelters to see if they would allow pets in a disaster situation. Keep a contact list of “pet friendly” locations. If you are asked to evacuate, take your pets with you.

Choose an out-of-area emergency contact person. During or after a disaster, it’s often easier to call long distance, especially if local phone lines are overloaded or out of service. Family members should call this person and tell them where they are. Everyone must know your emergency contact person’s phone number and email address.

Tell your family about the Safe and Well web site accessible at all times via www.redcross.org. The Safe and Well Web site is an Internet-based tool that allows those directly affected by a disaster to let their loved ones know of their well-being. People within a disaster affected area are able to select and post standard “safe and well” messages. Concerned family members who know the person’s phone number (home, cell, or work) or a complete home address can search for the messages posted by those who self-register.

Show and explain to each family member how and when to turn off the water and electricity at the main switches. Turn gas off only if instructed by local authorities. Remember, if the gas is shut-off, only a professional can turn it back on.

Plan your evacuation route. Use local maps and identify alternate evacuation routes from home, work and/or school. Know where you are going and how you plan to get there before you leave home.

Be informed:

Find out what types of disasters are likely to occur in your area and how to prepare for each.
Find out how local authorities will contact you during a disaster. Listen to local media broadcasts or NOAA Weather Radio for the latest storm conditions and follow the advice of local authorities.

Contact your local American Red Cross chapter for details about community disaster education presentations that may be arranged or are available in your workplace, school or community organization.

Get trained in CPR and first aid so you will know how to respond to emergencies in the event that help is delayed.

If you are told to evacuate, do so immediately. You may choose to evacuate sooner than alerted if you think you may need additional time.

Know what to do if a hurricane WATCH is issued:

Listen to weather updates from your battery-powered or hand-cranked radio.
Bring in outdoor objects such as lawn furniture, hanging plants, bicycles, toys and garden tools, anchor objects that cannot be brought inside.
Close all windows and doors. Cover windows with storm shutters or pre-cut plywood.
If time permits, and you live in an identified surge zone, elevate furniture or move it to a higher floor to protect it from flooding.
Fill your vehicle’s gas tank.
Check your disaster supplies kit to make sure items have not expired.

Know what to do if a hurricane WARNING is issued

Listen to the advice of local officials, and leave if they tell you to do so.
If in a manufactured home, check tie-downs and evacuate as told by local authorities.
Secure your home by unplugging appliances and turning off electricity and the main water valve.
If you are not advised to evacuate, stay inside, away from windows, skylights and glass doors.
Do NOT use open flames, such as candles and kerosene lamps, as a source of light.
If power is lost, turn off appliances to reduce damage from a power surge when electricity is restored.
For more information regarding how individuals and families can prepare for disasters or to purchase emergency preparedness and first aid kits, visit www.redcross.org or call 1-800-RED CROSS.

Hurricane Season Begins June 1st - CPSC Urges Consumers to Prepare for Dangers After the Storm

June 1st marks the start of hurricane season. As you put your hurricane plan in place to protect your family and your home, CPSC is urging consumers to include a plan for after the storm.

If a storm knocks out power, consumers who use portable gasoline generators to restore power can place themselves at risk for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. Only use portable generators outdoors, far away from the doors, windows and vents of indoor spaces. Generators should never be used indoors, including inside homes, garages, basements, crawlspaces and sheds.

The amount of CO from one generator is equivalent to hundreds of idling cars in a garage and can kill consumers in minutes. At least 65 people died from CO poisoning associated with portable generators in 2006.

CPSC also advises consumers to keep charcoal grills outside. Never use them indoors. Burning charcoal in an enclosed space can produce lethal levels of CO.

If flooding occurs after a storm, do not use gas or electrical appliances or equipment that has been submerged. The electrical components and safety controls may be damaged and burner parts may be plugged with debris, leading to a fire risk. Have fireplaces, furnaces, and other heating equipment inspected by a professional to make sure they are working properly.

CPSC recommends that consumers install CO alarms in their homes as a line of defense against CO poisoning. Battery operated CO alarms or plug-in alarms with battery back-up add an important layer of protection in consumers' homes. Remember to replace CO alarm batteries annually.

Georgia Counts on Sprint as Hurricane Season 2008 Begins

BUSINESS WIRE--As Georgia residents gear up for hurricane season, Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) continues to harden its networks so that critical communications are available to its customers before, during and after a storm.

One of the primary reasons for the loss of wireless service in a hurricane is the loss of commercial power to the cell site. Sprint continues to take steps to reduce the effect of power loss on its wireless networks. In 2007, Sprint invested $59 million for hurricane preparations in storm-prone coastal communities. This investment included the installation of permanent generators for critical wireless sites and network facilities as well as investment in additional portable generators and Cell Sites on Wheels (COWs) – mobile cell sites that can be deployed in impacted areas to restore service quickly. This equipment provides backup to the networks in the event of power outages or other damage that could result after a hurricane.

Sprint continues to target several key categories of wireless sites for backup power including:

• High call volume sites
• Sites covering hurricane evacuation routes
• Public safety organizations
• State and local Emergency Operation Centers
• Hospitals and nursing homes
• Major commercial airports and ports
• Government facilities and military bases

In 2007, Sprint installed permanent generators at more than 1,300 sites in hurricane-prone communities throughout the Southeast and Gulf Coast, including Georgia. Sprint also added more than 195 new sites throughout the state of Georgia to its Nationwide Sprint Network and Nextel National network in 2007.

“Customer service and network reliability are top priorities at Sprint,” said Richard Blanc, regional vice president, field engineering and operations for the South Region. “Customers depend on us, and we’re committed to network redundancy and reliability to support our customers and first responders, especially in hurricane-prone communities along the southeast corridor.”

As a standard practice, Sprint Nextel has permanent generators at all of its wireless and wireline switches, the network components where data and calls are routed to their final destination. In addition, permanent generators are installed at all of the company’s network Points of Presence (POP), the facilities where traffic enters and leaves the company’s global IP network, which facilitates dedicated data services for Sprint’s corporate and government customers as well as other critical communications. These backup generators have automatic cutover switches to immediately neutralize any loss of commercial power.

In addition to hurricane preparations in the Southeast and Gulf Coast, Sprint invested approximately $6.5 billion in capital in 2007 largely to enhance its networks nationwide. Sprint is also the undisputed leader in push-to-talk services, used by first responders across the country for its consistent ability to remain fully operational even during crisis events. Nextel Direct Connect services set the industry standard for push-to-talk worldwide, serving the world’s largest push-to-talk community with millions of Nextel Direct Connect subscribers on the fastest national push-to-talk network. These subscribers made more than 90 billion Direct Connect connections in 2007.

Sprint has the largest portfolio of Nextel Direct Connect devices, including the largest selection of rugged phones certified to military standard 810F for dust, shock and vibration, useful for first-responders in emergencies.

Nextel Direct Connect services are critical for reliable disaster response:

• Select Sprint’s Nextel^® Direct Connect services do not rely entirely on the public switched telephone network (PSTN); Nextel Direct Connect service on select devices has remained fully operational during past crises when there have been issues with the PSTN.
• Direct Talk^sm- enabled phones, used by public sector customers, can communicate off-network via push-to-talk with other Direct Talk-capable phones handset-to-handset, independent of any wireless network, for short range communications. Ideal for remote locations or situations where network service is not available, Direct Talk has proven invaluable during past disaster response efforts.
• Priority Services offered on select Nextel Direct Connect capable phones provide higher queuing for voice and Direct Connect calls for eligible public sector subscribers, such as emergency responders, in times of network congestion. During times of crisis, these services help ensure that emergency personnel are able to communicate when they need to most.

Sprint has a strong track record of providing critical communications and personnel to assist first responders with relief efforts. In preparation for the upcoming hurricane season, Sprint’s network and business continuity teams will deploy additional Satellite Cell on Light Trucks (SatCOLTS), the design of which is proprietary to Sprint Nextel. SatCOLTS help facilitate communications among relief and response agencies. Additional network team members will also be pre-staged in hurricane-prone states for any potential disaster response efforts.

Customers can take proactive steps before storms hit. For more information about Sprint Nextel hurricane preparation efforts, or to learn what you can do to prepare for a major storm, visit: www.sprint.com/hurricaneinformation.