New U.K. relationship may boost state's economy: Deal announces UK Trade & Investment to establish base in Georgia

Gov. Nathan Deal and Lord Stephen Green, Minister of State for Trade and Investment, announced today (May 18) from London that UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) will establish an office in Georgia to promote trade and foreign direct investment opportunities between the United Kingdom and the state.

“The United Kingdom is and will remain a strong business partner for the state of Georgia. The ties that bind us grow stronger each year, benefiting both economies,” said Gov. Deal. “In this mission to the United Kingdom, I hope to build on our firm foundation of friendship and trust to further opportunities that will create jobs and profitable investment opportunities.”

UKTI, part of the British Government, helps U.K.-based companies succeed in international markets and overseas companies bring high-quality investment to the country. The UKTI will be co-located with the British Consulate-General in downtown Atlanta. An officer is in place temporarily for the months of May and June to undertake preparation for the launch of the full-time trade office opening in early July with a team of two full-time trade officers. UKTI has been operating in Georgia through regular visits of trade officers from its Miami location.

“Trade and investment is at the heart of the UK’s growth strategy and we see great prospects for further growth of British business links with Georgia and across the Southeast,” said Lord Green. “That is why we are pleased to announce today an expansion of our UK Trade and Investment team in Atlanta to further develop these opportunities to the benefit of jobs in both our countries.”

Deal and Lord Green made the announcement during the governor’s first international mission since taking office. His visits to Liverpool and London are helping develop strategic partnerships with the United Kingdom to support job growth in both countries.

“The British government is delighted to be hosting Gov. Deal on this visit. The governor’s visit will help to advance additional opportunities to expand this successful economic partnership to the benefit of both our countries,” said Her Majesty’s Consul General, Annabelle Malins, who is accompanying the visit.

“We do a lot of business in and with the U.K. and establishing the new trade and investment office is a natural outgrowth of that relationship,” said Chris Cummiskey, commissioner of the Georgia Department of Economic Development, who is traveling with Deal on the mission.

The United Kingdom ranks as the sixth-largest export market and eighth-largest import market for Georgia. The state exported nearly $990 million there in 2010, with top exports including electrical machinery, wood pulp, aircraft or spacecraft, paper and machinery. Imports from the U.K. totaled close to $2.3 billion and consisted primarily of pharmaceutical products, nonrailway vehicles, electrical machinery, machinery, and aircraft or spacecraft.

More than 100 Georgia companies have operations in the U.K. and around 565 British facilities operate in Georgia, including 110 manufacturing locations. These U.K.-affiliated companies employ close to 35,000 Georgians. Through the Department of Economic Development, Georgia maintains both a business office and a tourism office in the U.K.

This program follows a series of high-level visits: Mayor Kasim Reed of Atlanta visited London in November, U.K. Minister Alistair Burt visited Georgia in December and a Liverpool delegation led by the University of Liverpool visited Georgia in January. Daily flights between Atlanta and London operate out of Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

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Georgia Latino Population Swells

/PRNewswire/ -- The Latino population in Georgia experienced exceptional growth since 2000, increasing 96% in the last decade, according to a National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund analysis of newly released Census 2010 data.

Between 2000 and 2010, while the state's overall population grew 18% from 8.2 million to 9.7 million, the Latino population increased from 435,227 to 853,689.

Latinos account for 28% of overall population growth in the state over the last ten years, and represent 8.8% of the state's population.

"These numbers show that Latinos are an integral part of the state's future economic well-being," said State Representative Pedro Marin. "In order to ensure the prosperity and well-being of all residents of Georgia, our policies must promote the economic and civic progress of Latinos."

Many of Georgia's ten largest incorporated areas – which include the state's cities – also have significant Latino populations, including Roswell (17%), Sandy Springs (14%), and Athens-Clarke County (10%), which the U.S. Census Bureau classifies as the state's fastest-growing big city. Additionally, more than half (57%) of Georgia's Latino residents live in the ten largest counties, including Fulton – home to Atlanta.

The data also found the Latino population is significantly younger than the non-Latino population.

"The newly released numbers suggest that the Latino community in our state placed a high priority on being counted in the 2010 Census and of being full participants in the political process in our country," said Jerry Gonzalez, Executive Director of the Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials (GALEO).

"As Georgia now undertakes the redistricting process, it is time to make sure Latinos can embrace the opportunity to translate those Census numbers into full and fair representation."

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Public Forum on Plan 2040 Nov 9 (North Fulton, North DeKalb, Gwinnett)

Fast‐growing region needs forward‐thinking plan: Civic League, ARC seek citizen input on Nov. 9

Residents of North Fulton, North DeKalb and Gwinnett counties are invited to join The Civic League for Regional Atlanta and the Atlanta Regional Commission on Tuesday, Nov. 9 from 6:45 to 9:00 p.m. for a public forum on Plan 2040, the 10‐county region’s plan for guiding economic and population growth sustainably over the next 30 years. The Plan 2040 Forum will be held at Christ the King Lutheran Church (5575 Peachtree Parkway, Norcross GA 30092), and though this is a free event, registration is requested by Nov. 5.

With a projected population increase of around 3 million people by 2040, regional citizens and policymakers have much to consider ‐‐ How will we all get around? How much farther out (or up) should our communities grow? How do we balance what we want against what we really need? Planners from ARC will be on hand at this event to explain Plan 2040 and answer questions, and The Civic League will facilitate a group discussion designed to solicit thoughtful feedback from all participants.

Since June, The Civic League and ARC have been hosting Plan 2040 Forums in communities around the region to engage a broad cross‐section of citizens in planning for the region’s continued strong growth. The Nov. 9 forum is located for the convenience of individuals who live or work in northeast metro communities, including Chamblee, Doraville, Dunwoody, Norcross, Lilburn, Berkley Lake, Lawrenceville, Roswell, Sandy Springs, Alpharetta, Johns Creek and Suwanee.
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Study Shows Atlanta Kills Off Start-Up Companies

Atlanta is poised to become the nation’s poster child for how to kill off a burgeoning industry. A new study by professors at Georgia Tech reveals that the city’s reputation as a high technology center masks a decade of erosion. Though it leads the U.S. in the physical resources that attract and sustain high-tech industry, Atlanta companies haven’t meshed within the local economy.
The result has been a steady migration of companies to other states and an industry profile described by the study as “at best, stagnant.” The findings offer a wake-up call to Atlanta and a roadmap for other regions looking to grow high-tech industry.

Study findings show that 40 percent of Atlanta’s high-tech start-up companies leave for other states within three years. California, New York, New Jersey and Florida are common destinations for Georgia-born IT companies. That, combined with a persistent decline in large IT companies, accounts for the industry malaise.

“Instead of building great high-tech companies, Atlanta has become a feeder system for great high-tech companies in other states,” says study author Dan Breznitz, assistant professor in the Schools of International Affairs and Public Policy within the Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts at Georgia Tech.

Breznitz, and co-author Mollie Taylor of the Enterprise Innovation Institute and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, set out to settle the debate over what induces sustained regional entrepreneurial growth in the high-tech industry - physical resources or business social structure. They focused their research on the Atlanta metropolitan area because it leads the U.S. in the physical factors necessary for developing technological-entrepreneurial clusters: top research universities, a large educated labor pool, a wealth of new technologies and entrepreneurs, a vibrant creative class and generous venture capital financing. Atlanta has also been perceived as having the social business structure needed to induce growth. The study revealed otherwise.

“The metro area excels at incubating high-tech businesses, but it lacks the cohesive business social structure needed to sustain them, so many of the most promising young companies leave the city,” says Breznitz. “Atlanta high-tech companies don’t interlock with each other, and the large companies that control industry in Georgia don’t interlock with the high-tech industry,” says Breznitz, highlighting a complaint that he and Taylor heard consistently from the area’s high-tech workforce.

Analysis of Atlanta’s most promising new companies and the city’s top 50 technology firms revealed little contact either between IT executives with those of Fortune 500 or with other technology companies. CEOs, attorneys and managers in Atlanta IT companies don’t sit on each other’s boards and don’t communicate. The problem isn’t unique to the city’s IT industry, but there are far fewer interlocks within the IT community than in other industries that are successful in the region.

The study identifies the need for policies and institutions that stimulate information sharing, collective learning, access to resources and business community building. It also identifies venture capital industry with true local focus (which Atlanta lacks) as crucial to embedding a company locally. In conclusion, business social variables are crucial for long-term entrepreneurial-technological economic growth, and unless Atlanta’s high-tech industry develops multi-dimensional locally centered social networks, it will continue to stagnate.

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J.D. Power and Associates Reports: U.S. New-Vehicle Retail Sales in 2008 Forecasted to Decrease by 2 Million Units Below 2007 Levels

J.D. Power and Associates Reports: U.S. New-Vehicle Retail Sales in 2008 Forecasted to Decrease by 2 Million Units Below 2007 Levels; Total Light Vehicle Forecast Revised Down to 13.6 Million Units for 2008, 13.2 Million Units for 2009

New Light-Vehicle Sales in Chinese, Indian and European Markets Also Anticipated to Slow Dramatically

/PRNewswire/ -- As the U.S. new-vehicle retail market continues to deteriorate, new-vehicle retail sales are projected to end 2008 at 10.8 million units, which is 2 million units below 2007 sales, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

Approximately two-thirds of the decline in retail sales -- which are reflective of actual consumer behavior in the new-vehicle marketplace -- can be attributed to consumers delaying vehicle purchases. On average, consumers are keeping their vehicles 4 months longer in 2008 compared with 2007 -- up from 67 months to 71 months. The remaining one-third of the volume decline comes from reduced leasing activity. Additionally, fleet sales are expected to decline to 2.8 million units in 2008, which is well below the 3.3 million unit level achieved in 2007.

"Buyers are both voluntarily and involuntarily exiting the U.S. new-vehicle market," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting for J.D. Power and Associates. "The additional decline in expected vehicle sales is a function of growing concerns around availability of credit and leasing, declines in vehicle equity and general economic stress."

The current turmoil and financial crisis adds risk to the 2008 forecast of up to 200,000 units, as it is unclear how consumers will respond in the fourth quarter.

Total U.S. Light-Vehicle(1) Market

J.D. Power and Associates forecasts total new light-vehicle sales -- which includes both retail and fleet sales -- to drop to 13.6 million units in 2008, registering a 16 percent decline from 16.1 million units in 2007.

Market uncertainty has also led to a downward revision of the J.D. Power and Associates 2009 U.S. light-vehicle forecast. Total new light-vehicle sales are expected to drop to 13.2 million units in 2009, with the retail sales market declining to 10.6 million units.

"Falling trade-in equity, fewer leasing options, credit market restructuring and the increased migration to used vehicles are all putting added pressure on the U.S. new-vehicle sales market in 2009," said Schuster. "Any truly pronounced recovery appears to be more than 18 months away."

China Light-Vehicle Market

Slowing within China's automotive market is projected to intensify during the fourth quarter of 2008, and will likely lead to a downward revision for 2009. Despite the slowing, light-vehicle sales -- including passenger vehicle and light commercial vehicle segments -- in China are expected to reach 8.9 million units in 2008, which marks an increase of 9.7 percent from 2007. However, the projected growth rate for the China automotive market in 2008 is less than one-half of the 24.1 percent growth achieved in 2007.

Indian Light-Vehicle Market

The light-vehicle sales forecast has also been reduced for the India market, down 6 percent from the original forecast of 1.9 million units to 1.8 million units for 2008. The 5.1 percent growth rate forecasted for 2008 is considerably less than the increases demonstrated in 2007 (16%) and 2006 (21%).

European Light-Vehicle Market

Light-vehicle sales in Europe are expected to fall to 21.3 million units in 2008, marking a 3.1 percent decline from sales in 2007. Within Western Europe, sales are forecasted to decline to 15.6 million -- a decrease of 7.5 percent from 2007. While sales in Eastern Europe are expected to increase to 5.8 million in 2008 -- up 11.3 percent from 2007, growth within the region is slowing considerably.

"While the global automotive industry is clearly experiencing a slowdown in 2008, the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse," said Schuster. "While mature markets are being impacted more severely than emerging markets, no country or region is completely immune to the turmoil."

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Credit Aftershocks Damage Nation’s Growth Prospects; Oil Holds the Key to Fed’s Next Move, Says Georgia State Forecaster

The aftershocks from the credit crisis which continue to spread to other sectors have not only put the economy into a recessionary state but also have damaged its growth prospects until 2010, according to Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University. In his Forecast of the Nation, released today, Dhawan warns that any additional uptick in oil prices could put the economy further at risk and recovery further away.

“Despite all of the aftershocks from the credit fallout, oil has been the wild card testing the Fed’s patience,” he said. “If the price of oil does not retreat below $100 per barrel by October on a sustained basis, worries of inflation will cause the Fed to raise rates much earlier than expected.”

Dhawan expects the price of oil will drop to an average of $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2008 allowing the Fed to hold off on rate hikes until next spring. However, he anticipates that the Fed will be somewhat aggressive raising the federal funds rate by 250 basis points by mid-2010.

“The Fed hikes will begin even before growth catches its stride which is a departure from the norm,” he said. “But rather than waiting until job growth picks up to normal levels, the Fed will hike the federal funds rate to show it is serious about containing inflation.”

While Dhawan says that the Fed will be able to stave off inflation, he cautions that the fragile health of the banks will cause the economy to recover at a slow rate.

“Despite efforts by the Fed and the Treasury to help bail out the financial industry, lenders still need to keep liquidity or cash on hand to deal with charge-offs that they will have to take as loans continue to go sour,” he said. “Still, some banks are on the brink of failure and it will be up to the FDIC to bail them out and should they run short of funds, look for the government to bail out the FDIC leaving taxpayers with the tab. Thus my forecast calls for an anemic recovery in 2009 and a below potential growth in 2010.”

Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center's National Report:
The GDP growth fails to cross the 2.0% mark until late-2009. Overall, real GDP growth for 2008 will be 1.4%, decelerating to a 0.5% rate in 2009. In 2010, real GDP will grow by 2.2%, still below the trend rate of 3.0%.
For 2008, consumption growth will be 1.0%, before moderating to 0.3% in 2009. It will rise by 1.9% in 2010. Durable goods consumption will decline by 2.8% in 2008 and 3.7% in 2009, before experiencing a sharp 3.9% rise in 2010.
For the year 2008, oil prices will average $106.7 per barrel, before moderating to just below $90.0 per barrel in 2009 and 2010.
Housing starts will average 0.949 million units in 2008 and will drop to 0.900 million units in 2009. Housing starts will rise to 1.209 million units in 2010.
For 2008, the inflation rate will average 4.3% but will moderate sharply to a 2.2% rate in 2009. In 2010, the inflation rate will average 2.0%. Meanwhile, the core CPI inflation rate will average 2.3% in 2008 and 2009, before rising mildly to 2.4% in 2010.
The unemployment rate will average 5.5% in 2008, but it will rise to 6.3% in 2009, dropping slightly to 6.2% in 2010.

Georgia and Atlanta—Georgia’s Boat Tied to National Woes

Georgia’s job picture continues to look bleak despite gains in education, healthcare, and government jobs during the second quarter of 2008. According to Dhawan, the problem stems from the housing downturn which has had a negative ripple effect throughout Georgia’s economy. Additionally, high gas prices and the credit crisis have added to the area’s problems and, like the national economy, Georgia’s growth prospects will not return until 2010.

In his Forecast of Georgia and Atlanta, Dhawan says that Georgia’s residential and commercial real estate sector continues to show signs of weakness which not only impacts construction jobs but has spread to supporting sector jobs as well. While future construction growth depends on what the economy’s growth warrants, it is also a function of credit market conditions.

“Ultimately, it is the willingness of the banking sector to make new construction loans that makes future construction activity possible. The ability to finance construction in turn depends on the quality of the bank’s balance sheet,” says Dhawan. “Unfortunately, Georgia has been hard hit by the credit crisis with a proportion of unprofitable lending institutions currently at 25%, almost double the national rate.”

In addition, high gas prices are negatively impacting consumer spending and are wreaking havoc with Delta, the area’s largest employer, which has already announced major cutbacks in routes and jobs.

Net-net, says Dhawan, the prognosis for Georgia’s growth in the coming quarters is bleak. The question is when can the area expect to see job growth return?

“I expect job losses to continue at a somewhat heavy rate for the rest of the year and anticipate a net loss of 35,300 jobs for calendar year 2008,” he said. “In 2009, we’ll see the decline slow to 2,600 losses before the recovery strengthens in 2010 where we can expect to see 61,700 new jobs.”

However, he cautions, “Like the national picture, this forecast assumes that oil prices moderate below $100 per barrel by late October and stay low.”

Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center's Local Report:
For calendar year 2008, we anticipate 35,300 net losses (14,600 premium jobs). In 2009, 13,900 job losses are expected in the first half of the year, followed by 11,300 job gains in the second half, making for 2,600 job losses (11,000 premium jobs losses). The recovery will strengthen in 2010 when 61,700 jobs will be created (12,000 premium jobs).

Atlanta’s employment growth will remain negative for the remainder of 2008 for a total loss of 20,600 jobs (8,000 premium job losses). For calendar year 2009, Atlanta will post 3,900 job gains, but 4,100 premium job losses. The recovery will strengthen in 2010 when 44,200 jobs are created (10,200 premium job gains).

Atlanta's total housing permits will plummet by posting a 52.1% drop in 2008 after a 34.6% decline in 2007. Permit activity will again decrease at a slower rate of 5.0% in 2009 but will inch up in 2010, posting an 18.4% increase.

Most MSAs in Georgia will exhibit slower employment growth in 2008, with Albany, Columbus, Dalton, and Macon observing job losses. Only Savannah, Gainesville and Warner Robins will see any increase in employment in 2008, though increases will average below 1.0%.

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World Population Approaches 7 Billion

World population is projected to reach 7 billion in 2012, according to
the U.S. Census Bureau. The world population hit 6 billion in 1999.

These figures come from the updated world population estimates and
projections released today through the Census Bureau’s International Data
Base (IDB). The IDB provides information on population size and growth, age
and sex composition, mortality, fertility and net migration. The data are
available for 226 countries and other selected geographies.

This revision to the IDB includes updated projections for 34 countries.
Compared to previous estimates, this revision indicates that the world
population will be 146 million larger in 2050.

The Census Bureau’s latest projections show world population growing
at a slower pace during the first half of the 21st century than the latter
half of the 20th century. The world population doubled from 3 billion in
1959 to 6 billion in 1999, but is projected to increase by only 50 percent
between 1999 and 2040.

Global population growth, about 1.2 percent per year, is projected to
decline to 0.5 percent by 2050. However, this growth will be concentrated
in less-developed countries.

About 1.5 percent of the current global population is 80 or older, with
more than half living in developed countries. By 2050, about 5 percent of
the world’s population is projected to be 80 or older, with about three in
four likely to be living in less-developed countries. For developed
countries, the percentage of the population 80 or older will grow to about
10 percent in 2050.

World population estimates and projections include the impact of HIV and
AIDS. Of the 34 countries updated in this revision, nine are hard hit by
this pandemic (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire [Ivory Coast], Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Guinea, Nigeria, South Africa, Zimbabwe and the Central African Republic).
Data for other countries seriously affected by HIV and AIDS are also
available from the International Data Base.

The International Data Base offers online users a choice of ways to
retrieve demographic data, including:

· Country summary pages showing key population indicators <
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/summaries.html>

· Tables of demographic indicators for countries and regions <
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/tables.html>

· Population pyramids showing age and sex composition <
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html>.

For more information about this update, including the list of updated
countries, visit