Cold Georgia winter leads to soaring heating demand

Since Dec. 1, Georgians have experienced abnormally cold and wet weather, resulting in very high heating demands across the state.

For the first half of the climatological winter, Dec. 1 through Jan. 15, heating demand has been well above normal and last year’s levels.

In south Georgia, for example, heating demand has ranged from 19 percent above normal in Savannah to 43 percent above normal in Alma, or 80 percent to 100 percent more than this time last year for the region.

The percentages are based on heating degree days, which reflects the amount of energy needed to heat a building to a comfortable level considering the daily outside temperature.

Across the piedmont, the demand has been 30 percent above normal for Atlanta and 25 percent above normal for Athens, or 50 percent to 60 percent more than last year for the region.

In middle Georgia, the demand has been 39 percent above normal for Columbus, 28 percent above normal for Macon and 24 percent above normal for Augusta, or 75 percent to 90 percent more than last year for the region.

For the first half of January, heating demand across the state was even greater than for the winter as a whole. This means that January heating bills are expected to be much higher than last year.

Between Jan. 1 and Jan. 15, heating demand in the piedmont has ranged from 40 percent to 50 percent above normal, or 75 percent to 100 percent more than the same period last year.

For middle Georgia, it has been 50 percent to 70 percent above normal for January so far, or 100 percent to 140 percent more than the same period last year.

For south Georgia, it has been 60 percent to 90 percent above normal, or 140 percent to 180 percent more than same period last year.

In addition to low temperatures, there is an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes through the spring. Tornadoes in late January and February are not unusual in Georgia. These tornadoes can form anytime, day or night.

The current El Niño winter pattern is expected to continue through March.

By David E. Stooksbury
University of Georgia

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Wetter, cooler winter headed to Georgia

There is a high likelihood that Georgia’s winter will be wetter and cooler than normal.

The exception will be Georgia’s mountain region, which is near the transition from wetter-than-normal conditions to the south and drier-than-normal conditions to the north. Temperatures in the mountains will likely be below normal.

Due to heavy September and October rains, soils are already near saturation. Streams that are usually at their lowest flows during October are at levels normally seen in March, which is the month that generally has the highest flows. Because of this, the potential for winter flooding is higher than normal.

The ocean-atmosphere system is currently in the El Niño pattern. This pattern is expected to persist through the winter. Following an El Niño winter, it is not unusual for a drier-than-normal trend in spring.

El Niño’s influence is especially strong in the southern two-thirds of the state. The mountainous region of north Georgia and middle and east Tennessee is a transition zone. Depending on where the transition zone occurs this winter, the mountains will experience drier-than-normal, near-normal or wetter-than-normal conditions.

While the outlook is for a cooler winter, this does not mean that cold arctic outbreaks are likely. The coolness is primarily caused by the increase in cloudiness. This means that the daily high temperatures tend to be cooler than normal. However, the nighttime lows have a tendency to be slightly warmer than normal because of the increase in cloudiness.

It is very rare to experience temperatures in the low teens along the coast and coastal plain during an El Niño winter. Across the piedmont, single-digit temperatures are very rare. The mountains rarely experience temperatures around zero during an El Niño winter.

It is not unusual for the middle or late spring that follows an El Niño winter to be drier than normal. Thus, water managers are going to have a difficult time regulating reservoirs for an expected wet winter, knowing that from the middle of spring onward there is a good chance Georgia will experience drier-than-normal conditions.

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New Type of El Niño Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall

El Niño years typically result in fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. But a new study suggests that the form of El Niño may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall, according to climatologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The study appears in the July 3, 2009, edition of the journal Science.

“Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall,” said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

That’s because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning “similar, but different”), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning “little boy” or “Christ child”) is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.

“This new type of El Niño is more predictable,” said Webster. “We’re not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months.”

As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that’s not entirely clear yet, said Webster.

“This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño,” he said. “Or it could be El Niño’s response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure.”

In the study, Webster, along with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim used satellite data along with historical tropical storm records and climate models.

The research team is currently looking at La Niña, the cooling of the surface waters in the Eastern and Central Pacific.

"In the past, La Nina has been associated with a greater than average number of North Atlantic hurricanes and La Nina seems to be changing its structure as well,” said Webster. “We’re vitally interested in understanding why El Niño-L Niña has changed. To determine this we need to run a series of numerical experiments with climate models.”

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Georgia’s Winter Weather will be Extreme

Georgians can expect a roller coaster winter with temperatures jumping between warm and extremely cold.

The southeastern United States is currently in what is called a neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation. The ENSO refers to the surface temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO’s other two phases are El Niño and La Niña.

Last winter, a La Niña ENSO phase influenced Georgia’s weather.

The neutral phase normally brings a winter with wide swings in temperatures. This means that Georgia can expect extremely cold periods with single digits in the mountains and the lower 20s in south and coastal Georgia. Between the extremely cold periods, warm temperatures in the 70s can be expected.

All devastating freezes that have affected the Southeast have occurred during neutral winters. Devastating freezes for Georgia have been ones with temperatures below zero in the mountains, around 10 degrees along the coast and single digits in south Georgia.

This does not mean that every neutral winter will have a devastating freeze, but the odds are greatly increased. Because of the greater likelihood of a devastating freeze this winter, all Georgians are urged to take necessary precautions to protect life and property.

The rainfall outlook is less certain. Rainfall during neutral winters is very variable. Some neutral winters are very wet while other are very dry. At this time, we don’t know what we’ll get. Whether Georgia experiences a wet or dry winter will depend on the number of low-pressure systems that develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and move across the state.

We do know, however, that the past 15 winters have been drier than the long-term average. Given this trend, the best rainfall outlook for the winter is to hedge our bets that the winter will be drier than the long-term average.

A dry winter is not what the state needs. Northeast and north-central Georgia are still in extreme drought. Lakes Lanier, Hartwell, Russell and Clarks Hill are near or below their record lows. A very wet winter is needed for these lakes to fully recover.

Additionally, a dry winter will set the state up for another drought. Georgia depends on winter rains to recharge the soil moisture, groundwater and reservoirs for the heavy water use in summer. If the state does not receive adequate rains this winter, the probability of the drought expanding will increase.

By David E. Stooksbury
University of Georgia

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