Shirley Franklin and other U.S. Mayors to Meet With President Barack Obama at the White House on Friday, February 20, 2009

The nation's mayors have been invited by U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden to the White House for a meeting with The Conference of Mayors leadership on the morning of Friday, February 20, 2009. Led by U.S. Conference of Mayors President, Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, over 60 mayors will also meet with Attorney General Eric H. Holder, Jr., Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, Energy Secretary Dr. Steven Chu, Education Secretary Arne Duncan and White House Senior Staff.

The mayors meeting with President Obama and Vice President Biden will take place from 10:30 a.m. to 11:15 a.m. in the East Room of the White House and will be OPEN to the press. The mayors will also hold a press availability at the White House at 11:30 a.m. immediately following the meeting (location is TBD).

Following the White House meeting, the mayors will gather at the Capitol Hilton in Washington, D.C. for a session with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Program Director Gil Sperling, and U.S. Department of Justice COPS Office Acting Director Tim Quinn.

The nation's mayors commend President Obama and Congress for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which is in line with the U.S. Conference of Mayors' priorities, and look forward to working with the Administration to implement this landmark legislation toward transforming our national economy for the 21st Century.

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Inaugural Address Hit All the Right Notes, Says Rhetoric Expert

President Barack Obama's inaugural address hit all the right notes for an excellent speech, says Emory debate and rhetoric expert Melissa Maxcy Wade.

"President Obama was able to set the tone and expectations for the next four years, and capture where America is now, where we are in this moment in time," Wade says. "The speech flowed and the structure was excellent."

The opening immediately addressed the problems and challenges the nation faces, Wade says. The second element of the speech outlined "how we will meet those challenges: with big, bold plans to remake America." Third element and closing was a charge for a new era of service and responsibility with action to deliver on those plans. "Overall, it was surprisingly brief for an inaugural address with little repetition."

It remains to be seen, however, whether or not Obama's address will go down in the annals as one of the best on par with Presidents Roosevelt, Kennedy and Reagan.

"As far as laying out a vision and plan of action, I would give him a solid 'A.' However, it will be judged by what happens next and if it delivered on its promise," Wade says.

Wade is executive director of forensics at Emory and a watcher of numerous presidential speeches. She is one of only three university debate coaches in the United States who has served on the National Associated Press Presidential Debate Evaluation Panel for every U.S. presidential election since 1976.

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Obama Struggles to Explain Drop of Windfall Profits Tax for Oil and Gas Industry

Barack Obama may already be losing credibility over his explanation as to why he dropped the windfall profits tax on the oil and gas industry from his administration's agenda. During his campaign, President-elect Obama promised to enact a windfall profits tax on the oil and gas industry, which would help finance a $1,000 emergency energy rebate for American families.....More

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Iran Follows Russia in Threatening New Administration with Ballistic Missiles

/PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, Chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA, http://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/) pointed out today that Iran's test-firing of a long-range ballistic missile is an attempt to intimidate the United States as the transition of Administrations is taking place. His comments are as follows:

"Yesterday, Iran launched a two stage solid fuel ballistic missile with a range of 1,200 miles making U.S. troops, bases, and allies in the Middle East most notably Israel vulnerable to threats, intimidation and influence of Iran and its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This display of provocation intended to engage the new administration under President-elect Obama follows the similar tactics of the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev who set a precedent less than a week ago by threatening the deployment of ballistic missiles on its border if the new U.S. administration does not withdrawal from the agreements that would deploy missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic."

"The Iranian ballistic missile proliferation, demonstration and development coupled with their quest for nuclear weapons creates an extremely unstable region that extends beyond the Middle East and into Europe."

"Countries within the region will be forced to react to equalize the status quo and maintain stability. Their limited options are, to rely upon and request American security, match and deter the ballistic missile inventory of Iran, launch pre-emptive military action, or become nuclear."

"Iran's technical development of two stage and solid fuel boosters with its ballistic missiles extends their range and technology today and in the future to influence, deter and threaten Europe and critical U.S. bases stationed in Europe."

"It is clearly apparent for President-elect Obama and his new administration to have flexibility, tools and options to deal with Iran to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East."

The current investment in missile defense capabilities must continue to be developed, tested and deployed from the European third site to the U.S. and regional missile defense assets to ensure security and stability for the Middle East.

"Missile defense will supplement current and future diplomatic and threat reduction efforts as well as give insurance for protection and stability in case of failure of these efforts."

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Financial Advisers Lack Confidence in Obama's Ability to Heal U.S. Economy, According to InvestmentNews Survey

PRNewswire/ -- The majority of financial advisers have little confidence in President-elect Barack Obama's ability to put the U.S. back on sound economic footing, according to a new online survey by InvestmentNews, the leading news source for financial advisers. Of the 968 financial advisers surveyed on November 6 and 7, 61% said they lack confidence in the new commander-in-chief's ability to resolve the country's economic woes.

Besides restoring economic stability, 39% of 997 advisers said the development of a workable energy policy was the most important issue facing the country, the survey found. Terrorism, the war in Iraq and health care were picked as the No. 1 issue by 23%, 21% and 17% of respondents, respectively.

"Despite Obama's historic election last week, our survey reveals that financial advisers are still unsure about his ability to resolve our nation's most pressing economic issues," said Jim Pavia, editor of InvestmentNews. "This just goes to show that the President-elect has his work cut out for him in the months ahead - not just in creating a path to prosperity but in proving himself with the financial community."

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Russia Helps Solidify Missile Defense in Europe With Remarks by President Medvedev

PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Riki Ellison, Chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA) www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org issued a statement today reacting to remarks by Russia's President, Dmitry Medvedev. The statement is as follows:

"The public remarks by President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia at his state of the union address to the Duma demanding the withdrawal of the U.S. missile defense systems in Europe by threatening the placement of Russian mobile missiles and other military action has helped solidify the continued deployment of the European Missile Defense site by the United States of America and its NATO allies.

"These remarks, made the day after the U.S. election, were directed at the President-elect Barack Obama and his new administration. This rhetoric, reminiscent of 20-year-old cold war tactics, has been used in different degrees and at different audiences over the past two years. The European Missile Defense site the Russians are opposing will consist of a U.S. midcourse x-band radar (EMR) in the Czech Republic and 10 U.S. ground-based interceptors in Poland, which will defend most of Europe including the northwest parts of Russia and Moscow as well as protecting the United States from ballistic missiles launched from Iran.

"This past year, former Russian President Vladimir Putin used a similar type of threat prior to the NATO summit in Bucharest, which had an adverse effect and galvanized the Europeans and NATO to endorse the European missile defense site after his remarks. President Putin also used the threatening rhetoric of targeting missiles towards the Czech Republic and Poland prior to each of their formal agreements with the United States to host these missile defense systems and again his statements galvanized both the population and the leadership to move forward with the agreements.

"This particular threat by President Medvedev comes again at the wrong time to the wrong audience, as it is clearly the first test to President-elect Obama. Like his predecessor before him, President Medvedev's intended intimidation will further embed the European Missile Defense site in the next U.S. Administration rather than less and strengthens the unity of Europe with the United States on missile defense."

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Election Finale Good For Global Economy, Says Emory's Rosensweig

The end of the 2008 election season will be good for the global economy, no matter who won, according to international finance expert Jeff Rosensweig of Emory's Goizueta Business School. "Uncertainty is always bad for an economy, and we live in the most volatile and uncertain of times. Removing this element of political uncertainty will certainly help."

Executives in finance and business generally fear an era with both U.S. Congress and presidency controlled by Democrats, says Rosensweig. "Rightly or wrongly, they think this could lead to massive government spending," he says. "In this unique case, such fears may be unfounded.

"First, the outgoing administration was one of the most profligate in U.S. history, to the dismay of many Republican fiscal conservatives," says Rosensweig. "Second, the present time, for the first time since the Great Depression, may call for some direct government spending to stimulate the economy. The job market is fragile at best, and could soon become awful. This is already apparent in the financial services, construction and manufacturing (e.g. auto) industries."

Similar to the jobs created by Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930s, President-elect Barack Obama may work with a Democratic Congress for a second stimulus package. "The first one, tax rebates, had only limited impact because much of it was saved or spent on imports, not on U.S. production," Rosensweig says.

As the economy continues to stall, Rosensweig expects the federal government to implement a temporary spending package aimed at directly creating jobs. "My own proposal is to hire unemployed construction workers, among others, to help rebuild the U.S. infrastructure. Bridges, sewer systems, subways--they are all in disrepair.

Already, key economies such as Germany are enacting fiscal stimulus packages, Rosensweig adds. An effort will be made to globally coordinate such packages, as well as to capitalize the financial system.

Finally, Rosensweig does not look for a President-elect Obama to increase taxes within a few years on wealthier families as he has proposed. "It is one thing to get elected, another to govern," he says.

Given the backdrop of looming recession, Rosensweig expects the new president will realize this is no time to raise taxes in general, and despite his social goals, will have to delay such tax increases. "The U.S. goverrnment will clearly incur the largest budget deficit in history, leading also to a delay in Obama's proposals to boost healthcare coverage."

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Statement by John Oxendine - Candidate for Governor of Georgia 2010 on the election of President-elect Obama:

Tonight, America spoke.

While millions of Americans are disappointed, even concerned, we remain a united America. Our country is blessed to be guided by a Constitution which has ensured a peaceful transition of
power longer than any other nation in the history of man. Tonight, our nation is at peace and our nation remains the single best hope for mankind.

America is in transition. However, America remains strong, free, and united. I congratulate President-elect Obama and hope that he will govern with a humble heart and inclusive manner and respect the Judeo-Christian values which have built America. Like so many conservatives, I am determined to stand as the loyal opposition, to fight for those conservative values that I consider vital to Georgia families. But, that is for another day. Tonight, I wish my friends Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin Godspeed and say thank you for your campaign
and I keep President-elect Obama and Vice-President-elect Biden in my prayers.

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Isakson, Chambliss: Obama’s Comments Reflect Fundamental Lack of Understanding of Tri-State Water Issues

Call Favoritism of Florida's Needs ‘A Clear Affront to the Residents of Georgia’

U.S. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., today sent a letter to Senator Barack Obama, D-Ill., expressing their disappointment with comments he made on Oct. 16, 2008, regarding water allocation issues in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa river basins.

The text of the letter is below:

Dear Senator Obama:

We are writing to express our disappointment with comments made yesterday by you and your campaign relating to water allocation issues in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River basins. As you may know, these river basins serve Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. While we appreciate your recent and sudden interest in the tri-state water issues we have been working on for the past six years, the comments by you and your campaign reflect a fundamental lack of understanding of the nature of the problems in the ACF and ACT basins, a lack of understanding of the requirements of the Army Corps of Engineers with regards to the ACF and ACT basins under federal law, and a cavalier disregard for the needs of the residents of Georgia.

According to your campaign’s statement, you “would direct the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study to assess the water availability, supply options, and demand-management alternatives that factor into ACF River System usage, as well as the impact of freshwater flow on the ecology of the Apalachicola River and Bay.” You also said “As President, I will make protecting Florida’s water resources a priority.”

As you may know, the Army Corps of Engineers is required under federal law to update the water control manuals for the ACF and ACT basins, and recently announced it would begin doing so in the ACT basin. We were pleased to hear from Secretary of the Army Pete Geren personally that the Corps is moving forward with updating these manuals, because it will allow the Corps to make smarter decisions in their management of these river systems. We have underscored to him how important this action is. As you also may know such an update would include studies to assess water supply and demand, and environmental management practices for ALL the users and stakeholder in the basins, not just those on the Apalachicola River and Bay. To ask the Corps to ignore its responsibilities under federal law in favor of the residents of Florida is a clear affront to the residents of Georgia. To state that you will make protecting Florida’s water resources a priority over Georgia’s shows that you do not care about the needs of the people of Georgia.

We have continually worked to get Georgia, Florida and Alabama together and to force the Corp of Engineers to update a 20-year-old Water Control Plan for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basins. In 2006 we held Senate hearings in Gainesville and Columbus to implore the Corps to keep its commitment to update its outdated water control plan for the two river basins.

On August 1, 2007, we met with Secretary Geren as well as Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works John Paul Woodley, Lieutenant General Robert L. Van Antwerp and General Counsel Craig Schmauder. At the meeting, Secretary Geren indicated his desire to give mediation time to work before starting the update of the water control manuals.

When Secretary Geren gave his commitment to us that if and when mediation broke down and was not making progress, he would begin the update of the water control manuals, we held him to that promise. On September 28, 2007, after judges involved in the mediation announced that the talks had broken down, we sent a letter to Secretary Geren strongly urging him to honor his pledge to update the water control plan.

On October 18, 2007, Secretary Woodley told both of us by telephone that the Corps will start the process for updating the water control manual for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin.

We also facilitated meetings in Washington between the Governors of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, as well as meetings between the Governors and the Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne, and Council on Environmental Quality Chairman Jim Connaughton. We continue to work with the Governors and their staffs to come to a solution so the states can take advantage of the productive talks they have had and agree on a resolution.

From Lake Lanier to Lake Allatoona, from Atlanta to West Point Lake, and from LaGrange to Columbus, we have worked to find a solution that benefits not only the people of our state, but all those who reside in the river basins. It is unfortunate that you wish to undo the good work we have done to find a solution for all the people in the river basin and instead prioritize the needs of only the people of Florida.

Sincerely,
Saxby Chambliss Johnny Isakson
United States Senator United States Senator

Americans' Confidence in Their Leaders Declines Sharply

PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- 80% of Americans believe that the U.S. faces a leadership crisis today -- up from 77% in 2007 and 65% in 2005 -- according to poll results just released by the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Merriman River Group.

Many Americans also agree that they are not getting the leadership they need from President Bush and his advisers. 60% say they have not much or no confidence in the leadership of the executive branch, up from 49% last year.

Despite this lack of confidence in presidential leadership, the poll results reveal important points of agreement on how the next president should lead. Moreover, Americans place great importance on the 2008 election: 77% believe it matters a great deal for the future of the country, up from 65% a year ago.

"We hear a lot about deep political divides in this country, but this poll shows that Americans have clear ideas about the kind of leadership they expect from their presidents," said David Gergen, Director of the Center for Public Leadership.

The poll asked a demographically representative sample of 997 U.S. citizens (margin of error +/- 3.1%) to choose between alternate conceptions of good presidential leadership. Many basic aspects of presidential leadership, such as building alliances and preserving checks and balances, are favored by a majority of Americans. For example:

-- 72% say presidents should use the military only to defend America and
react to enemy attacks
-- 71% say presidents should share power equally with Congress and the
Supreme Court
-- 64% say presidents should make decisions based on fairness
-- 56% say foreign policy should focus on building alliances
-- 55% say they prefer presidents who are never willing to be unethical
or bend the rules.

The poll also revealed some key differences in the facets of presidential leadership favored by supporters of John McCain and Barack Obama. "These core debates about presidential leadership give us some clues about how the candidates' leadership profiles attract supporters," notes the study's lead author, Seth Rosenthal.

"McCain supporters have a general preference for presidents who act as independent moral agents and focus on the country's safety and strength," noted Rosenthal. "In contrast, Obama supporters seem to prefer practical presidents whose decisions are more directly responsive to Americans' opinions and needs." For instance, when asked to choose between alternate conceptions of presidential leadership:

-- 62% of McCain supporters say presidents should be willing to offend
people and make enemies when necessary, while 61% of Obama supporters
prefer that presidents always be respectful and diplomatic
-- 60% of McCain supporters say presidents should lead based on moral
beliefs about what is right and wrong, while 52% of Obama supporters
counter that presidential leadership based on practical beliefs about
what works and doesn't work is more important.
-- 58% of McCain supporters say presidents should protect the public's
safety, even if it infringes on their freedom, while 49% of Obama
supporters believe that presidents should protect the public's
freedom, even if it infringes on their safety
-- 40% of McCain supporters want presidents to reduce the government's
power to allow Americans to succeed and fail on their own, a sentiment
with which only 15% of Obama supporters agree

Moreover,
-- 70% of Obama supporters want presidents to keep religious faith a
personal or private matter, while 54% of McCain supporters prefer that
presidents express their religious faith in public
-- 64% of Obama supporters say presidents should do what the American
people think is right, while 50% of McCain supporters want presidents
to do what they themselves think is right
-- 63% of Obama supporters want presidents to ensure that America is
respected for its fairness, while 53% of McCain supporters say it's
more important for presidents to ensure that America is respected for
its strength
-- 63% of Obama supporters say that presidents should focus on uniting
people, while McCain supporters are about equally split on whether a
president should focus on uniting people or on accomplishing goals,
even if it divides people.

Crisis in Confidence

The crisis in confidence in America's leaders is clearly reflected in the National Leadership Index 2008, which presents the public's confidence in the leaders of multiple sectors of society. From 2007 to 2008, many sectors experienced their steepest annual declines in confidence since the inception of the National Leadership Index in 2005. Among the survey's key findings:

-- Confidence in the leaders of seven sectors -- business, the Executive
Branch, Congress, religious, educational, the Supreme Court, and state
government -- fell more sharply in the past year than ever before
-- Confidence in business leaders dropped further than did confidence in
leaders of any other sector
-- Confidence in the Executive Branch and educational leaders has
declined for three years in a row
-- The only sectors in which Americans have more than a moderate amount
of confidence are military and medical leadership
-- Confidence held steady from 2007 for military, medical, nonprofit &
charitable, and local government leaders
-- For the third year in a row, confidence in leaders has not increased
for any sector.

However, Americans may see some light at the end of the tunnel. A plurality, 39%, believe that things will be better after the 2008 election, while only 7% believe things will be worse.

"The American people are experiencing tremendous anxiety at the uncertain state of the nation, and they're holding those at the top responsible," said Todd Pittinsky, Research Director at the Center for Public Leadership. "The next president will face significant challenges. And one of the most important will be to take the lead in restoring Americans' confidence."

For the complete survey and report visit: http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/leadership/images/CPLpdf/nli%20report.pdf.

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Belgian Journalists Speak on European Opinion about the U.S. Elections

Citing the current economic crisis, the war in Iraq and a need for multilateralism as reasons for Europeans to keep an eye on the U.S. presidential election, seven Belgian journalists weighed in on the candidates in a panel discussion at Georgia State on Monday.

“If you would have an election in Europe with the two candidates, you would see Barack Obama win 80 to 20 percent,” said Jorn De Cock, foreign affairs writer for De Standaard and Het Nieuwsblad/De Gentenaar. “But there is a real feeling in Europe that we should not express an opinion so it will not backfire over here.”

Guy Van Vlierden, foreign desk coordinator at Het Laatste Nieuws, said that although Europeans see Obama as a more favorable candidate, it’s still anybody’s game.

“It’s a constant surprise,” he said. “It’s crystal clear for us Belgians and Europeans: Barack Obama is the most interesting. I think John McCain will win at the end, I don’t know. It’s still a constant surprise.”

Jurek Kuczkiewicz of daily newspaper Le Soir said that in talking to Americans, it’s evident that U.S. foreign policy and global image are becoming an issue for voters, and many on the panel expressed apprehension about vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s foreign policy experience.

“The first issue anybody mentioned was and still is the United States’ image abroad,” Kuczkiewicz said. “I was very surprised. I think that as foreign media, we contribute to the American people learning about what effects their action abroad has.”

Panelists also said that after eight years of George W. Bush’s presidency, Europeans are ready for change, whatever the outcome of the election may be.

“There’s the economic problems, but besides that, the Iraq situation, the arrogance of people like Dick Cheney,” De Cock said. “The United States is our main ally, and we need each other. We haven’t really been behaving like allies in the past few years.”

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News to Use in Fayetteville, Atlanta, Savannah, Peachtree City and all of Georgia

Emory University: McCain's Call to Halt Campaign Risky, Unprecedented

Two Emory University political scientists say Sen. John McCain's request to suspend campaign activities, delay the first debate with Sen. Barack Obama and concentrate on the economy is unprecedented, with no predictable outcomes.

"I have never heard of anything happening like this. I don’t see how McCain's decision to suspend his campaign and his desire to delay the debate are going to have an affect on the economy," says Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz. "People really want to hear what the candidates have to say, and although foreign policy is supposed to be the topic, they can use the debates to talk about the economy."

"This is completely new territory, very interesting, high stakes politics,” says Emory political scientist Merle Black. "McCain's absence from the first debate, if it occurs, would be unprecedented and risky. It would give Barack Obama an opportunity to speak directly to Americans without opposition for 90 minutes."

"McCain's priority this week is helping resolve the current financial crisis rather than debating his opponent. His absence would indicate that a bipartisan bill that satisfies sufficient members of both parties has not been struck," Black says. "If McCain can help bring about a resolution of the crisis before Friday night, he is likely to appear in Mississippi and claim credit for leadership that transcends partisanship."

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Emory: Presidential Debates: Expect Talking Points, Gaffe Avoidance

The first in a series of Presidential debates is set for Friday, giving the American public an opportunity to hear directly from the candidates, Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Senator Barack Obama. Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz weighs in on what to expect.

"The debates are overrated in terms of their impact on the electorate. Polling data the past few decades has shown that the net impact is very small, only a couple of points," says Abramowitz, a renowned expert on polling, national politics and elections.

"Generally people react to debates along party lines and already have their minds made up," Abramowitz says. "Undecided voters are less like to watch the debates to begin with, and even those who do are generally not influenced by them very much." In 2004, Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry was perceived as the winner of all three debates, "but that didn't help him much," he says.

"I wouldn't expect or look for anything dramatic," says Abramowitz, noting the intensive preparation the candidates are undergoing. "Both candidates will stick to their talking points, so we're not likely to hear anything new or different, although with the state of the economy they're like to stray off course from talking about foreign policy."

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Election Forecast Predicts Obama in November

Abramowitz is a nationally known expert on national politics and elections and the author of "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States." His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate.

Emory University political scientist and polling expert Alan Abramowitz has crunched the numbers for his presidential election forecast and has found in the data a potentially decisive win for the Democrats. His "time for change" model predicts that Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama will win the majority of the national major party popular vote: 54.3 percent vs. 45.7 percent for Sen. John McCain.

A popular vote margin of this magnitude would almost certainly translate into an overwhelming majority in the Electoral College, Abramowitz says. His forecast has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points or less in every presidential election since 1988.

Three key factors form forecast

The state of the economy, presidential approval ratings and the number of terms a party has been in power are the three key factors Abramowitz uses in his "time for change" forecasting model.

"While factors outside of the model, such as rising partisan polarization and resistance to an African-American candidate by some white voters may result in a somewhat smaller popular vote margin for the Democratic nominee, the combination of an unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House, a weak economy, and a second-term election make a Democratic victory in November all but certain," writes Abramowitz in the forthcoming October issue of "PS: Political Science and Politics."

"The good news for Democrats is that 2008, unlike 2004, is a time-for-change election -- one in which the president's party has controlled the White House for two or more terms," Abramowitz says. Based on the assumption that a presidential election is fundamentally a referendum on the performance of the incumbent, the model factors in:

The presidential approval rating in the final Gallup Poll in June (which ran 33% for President Bush);
The change in real gross domestic product during the second quarter of the election year; and
A variable based on whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for only one term or longer.

Power hard to hold after multiple terms

"Economic conditions have a substantial impact on the outcomes of presidential elections. For every additional one percentage point of real annual GDP growth during the second quarter, the candidate of the president's party can expect to receive an additional 0.6 percent of the vote. Thus, the difference between running with a stagnant economy and running with a booming economy is substantial," Abramowitz explains in his paper.

The final variable, the time-for-change factor, plays a critical role in the model.

"A candidate from the president’s party running in a second- or later-term election suffers a penalty of more than 4 percentage points compared with a candidate running in a first-term election… Regardless of the popularity of the president or the state of the economy, it is simply much more difficult for the president’s party to retain its hold on the White House," Abramowitz says.

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Emory's Political Scientists Comment on Upcoming Election

The 2008 election season now kicks into high gear with the coming announcements of vice-presidential picks, followed by the Democratic and Republican conventions. Renowned Emory University political scientists Merle Black and Alan Abramowitz take a look ahead at what voters can expect as Senators Barack Obama and John McCain head in to the final heats of an historic campaign.

Don't Trust the Polls Just Yet

"I wouldn't put much weight at all on the polls right now," says Abramowitz, the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science. "Polls are not a good predictor until we're past the conventions and into the main part of the campaign. You should see a bump in the polls for both candidates after their conventions." Start watching the polls a week or two after the Republican convention, he says.

Red States, Blue States

Black sees the electoral map looking very similar to 2004, with the Northeast and the Pacific coast solidly Democratic, and the South still going to the Republicans. "Obama has the best chance of turning over Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada," says Black, the Asa G. Candler Professor of Politics and Government.

Abramowitz expects more of a shift in potential battleground states. "Obama seems to have almost all of the states Kerry won in 2004 locked up. That's not true on the Republican side, which puts states like Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Indiana, Montana, Nevada and even Alaska into play," he says.

"The polls also don’t reflect the tremendous amount of resources the campaigns are deploying in battleground states, and in this case, the Obama campaign is way ahead of McCain's," Abramowitz says. "They're putting a lot of money into the ground game to register people to vote and get out the vote. If Obama can get his supporters out to the polls, he'll win."

The Conventions and the VPs

Both Abramowitz and Black say that Obama's and McCain's choice of running mates is not nearly as important as it seems. People vote first and foremost for a president, so unless a highly unusual nominee is picked, that person tends to not have much impact on the outcome of the election.

The conventions, on the other hand, provide "the best opportunities for both candidates to shape their images. It's a clear shot at a very large audience. Both parties want to put on the best show possible," Abramowitz says.

Black cautions that for the Democrats, "there is a danger for Obama to act like he has already won, and coming on too much like a celebrity, especially given the setting for his speech in a football stadium. Some voters like that, some don't. What's interesting is that in a year where the Democrats appeared poised to win everything, the presidential race is still tight. Presidential politics essentially comes down to voters looking at two individuals and choosing one. It's a very personal preference, more so than other elections."

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