Economy Improving, but Expect Slow Progress

The economic recession that has gripped the nation appears to be ending, but that doesn’t mean that conditions will improve dramatically anytime soon, University of West Georgia economist William “Joey” Smith said Tuesday.

“The good news is the bad news is close to being over,” Smith said. “We’re already seeing a turnaround at the local and probably at the state levels. By all measures at the national level we are starting to experience recovery.”

Smith, who spoke at UWG’s annual Economic Forecast Breakfast, said there remain several areas of concern, such as unemployment, home foreclosures and high vacancy rates in residential and commercial real estate.

In many counties of west Georgia, unemployment insurance claims are continuing to rise, but at a slower rate, Smith said. That’s a good sign, because unemployment insurance claims are a leading economic indicator, a predictor of future trends.

“The employment situation is starting to stabilize, but it might be a while before there is a significant drop in the unemployment rate, which is a lagging indicator, providing a look at how conditions have been,” Smith said.

Donald Ratajczak, Regents Professor Emeritus of economics at Georgia State University, also spoke at the breakfast, telling the audience that a lean job market will linger for a while.
“Georgia had the fifth-worst number of job losses in the nation. That’s not something you bounce back from overnight,” he said.

Ratajczak also said that air transportation appeared to be one of the few industries showing some employment growth recently in Georgia, thanks to the presence of Delta Air Lines and other carriers at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta.

Ratajczak said the economic downturn has been brutal for businesses and consumers, but that cutbacks made by companies have helped many of them weather the storm.

“This has been the most remarkable recovery in terms of productivity. In past recessions, businesses have waited too long to cut workers. This time, they started doing it earlier, which actually helped raise productivity,” he said.

Smith talked about how the job losses have had a ripple effect on other sectors of the economy, especially real estate.

In the housing market, foreclosures have soared throughout west Georgia, Smith said, and have yet to show signs of stabilizing.

Early in the recession, foreclosures largely affected holders of subprime home loans and those who were on the margins of being able to afford homeownership, Smith said.

But as the recession has progressed, foreclosures have taken a huge toll on solidly middle class families that held traditional 15- or 30-year mortgages. Many of those households had two incomes but now have one or none, Smith said. Many of them also have had to depend on savings to pay the mortgage, and those savings are dwindling, putting them on the verge of foreclosure.

Vacancy rates, in residential and commercial real estate, also continue to be a problem.
Perhaps not surprisingly, building permits in west Georgia have plunged drastically and don’t show signs of rebounding. From 2007 to 2008, building permits for single family homes fell 56 percent in Carroll County, for example, and are projected to fall this year by 82 percent.
“The only reason we are starting to see some stabilization in housing permits really is that you can’t go below zero,” Smith said.

Despite the gloom that lingers, Smith said positive signs have clearly emerged.

“The recovery so far has been driven by optimism in the stock market and a bounce in consumer confidence,” he said.

In employment, Smith said health care and education remain the strongest sectors and that jobs in local governments will likely increase as the federal and state governments shift more responsibilities to localities.

Ratajczak said that at the national level, banks have not done a good job of making loans, which would help spur the economy. That has forced the federal government to extend more credit.
He also said that unlike the past two recessions, consumers won’t lead the recovery from this crisis, but rather businesses and government activity would.

Ratajczak said he believed the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, that bailed out a number of troubled banks, was absolutely necessary.

“You already lost about 6 or 7 million jobs in this recession. Without that, there would have been a multiplier effect that could have caused 14 or 15 million job losses.”

He also said that while a stimulus package was also necessary to shore up job losses, the one passed by the federal government was loaded with pet projects and earmarks that shouldn’t have been included.

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Georgia Disaster Mental Health Site is Online

The Georgia Disaster Mental Health website, designed and produced by University of West Georgia faculty, staff and graduate students, is operational and available for public use.

Sponsored by the Georgia Department of Human Resources, Georgia Division of Public Health and Division of Mental Health, Developmental Disabilities and Addictive Diseases, the far reaching site for residents is one of the most comprehensive sites of its kind in the nation and addresses many of the stresses any kind of catastrophe can bring to an individual, a family or a community.

Dr. Larry Schor, associate professor of psychology, and Vicki Rogers, a service desk manager in Information Technology Services at UWG, worked with colleagues and students for six months to create the site.

“Common setbacks result from the chaos and confusion that occurs when people are affected by disaster,” said Schor. “My experience as a disaster mental health counselor is that people really want the life they had before the disaster. The challenge is to find ways to begin to move forward.”

The response from state agencies and the public has been positive and frequent with agencies in other states requesting information on how the site was developed. Rogers said it was quite an undertaking.

“As a technical consultant and webmaster, this was the largest project I’ve ever worked on,” said Rogers. “We have already begun to update the site and I plan on working on the project over the holiday break. It’s a huge undertaking with a lot of information. Larry’s passion and expertise on the subject of disaster mental health makes this a very good site.”

Schor has assisted in mental health counseling after many disasters including the aftermath of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina.

“I am optimistic that people will benefit from the website,” said Schor. “Although I think the challenge will be getting the word out and convincing people on the importance of being prepared. Just as we tend to think about changing our windshield wiper blades when it is raining, people tend to deal with disaster needs only when they are affected directly.”

Schor said that people could go to the site and read about preparedness before a disaster and use the internal search to find topics such as “preparedness kits.” The website is also available in Spanish and offers resources and information on how to cope and prepare for a disaster to the elderly, members of the military, persons with disabilities and public school systems.

The site also links to a wide range of organizations including the American Red Cross, Center for Disease Control and Georgia911.org, Georgia’s disaster and emergency website. For more information, go to http://www.westga.edu/~gadmh/.

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UWG Ingram Library Hosts WWII Exhibit Through December 12

In observance of Veterans Day, the Ingram Library at the University of West Georgia will host a photograph exhibit, “Images of Small Town Americans in World War II,” from Tuesday, Nov. 4 through Friday, Dec. 12. The exhibit is free and the community is welcome to attend.

The personal collections of 18 men and women who served in Europe, the Pacific and North Africa in World War II documents a pivotal time in these soldiers’ lives and in American and world history.

In 2000, Smyrna resident Patricia Burns started collecting veterans’ oral histories and historical war items for the Smyrna Museum. The photographs in the exhibit were contributed from the veterans’ personal collections.

“These pictures show their youth, vibrancy and contribution during World War II, which forever changed them and the world,” said Burns. “They are also a reminder of so many young men and women who never made it home to grow old.”

The photographs tell the stories of U.S. Navy Signalman Grady “Pete” Burnette, First Lieutenant Dorothy “Dot” Bacon, Technical Sergeant Edward LaPorta and Private First Class Arthur Crowe, Jr.

Burnette hitchhiked from Powder Springs to Atlanta to join the Navy and fought in the Battle of the Java Sea, a major naval Pacific campaign of WWII, on a small destroyer. When the Japanese sank the small destroyer, he was captured and made a prisoner of war for more than three years.
Bacon, of Sumter, SC, served as a nurse in an English hospital during the war, where she worked long hours patching and suturing patients when the surgeons were too busy to do it.

LaPorta, an Italian immigrant, was one of 20 men in his company of 220 to survive the invasion of North Africa. Taken prisoner by the Germans, he was confined to camps in Italy and Germany. On transfer from one German camp to another, he refused to abandon a sick friend, pulling him on a make shift sled and then carrying him the remaining 80 miles, saving his life.

Crowe dropped out of The Citadel to join the army and participated in the Invasion of Normandy where he drove a truck off a landing barge and nearly drowned.

On an advance survey team in the Cherbourg Peninsula, he encountered a retreating German division and using the code word “serenade” helped communicate an order to attack that ultimately launched 800 artillery shells within a 20-second period.

Ingram Library hours are Monday through Thursday, 7:30 a.m. – 2 a.m.; Friday, 7:30 a.m. – 6 p.m.; Saturday, 10 a.m. – 6 p.m.; and Sunday, 2 p.m. – 2 a.m.

For more information, call 678-839-5337.

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Economic Forecast Breakfast October 28

The University of West Georgia will host the 2008 Economic Forecast Breakfast on Tuesday, Oct. 28, at 7:30 a.m. in the Campus Center Ballroom. Individual seating is still available with registration ending on Friday, Oct. 24.

Dr. William Smith, assistant professor of economics, pictured, and state economist Kenneth Heaghney will be guest speakers at the 12th annual Economic Forecast Breakfast at the University of West Georgia. The event will focus on the economies of the United States, the state of Georgia and the West Georgia region.

The annual event will focus on national, state and regional economic forecasts and will feature guest speaker Kenneth Heaghney, Georgia’s state economist, and Dr. William “Joey” Smith, an assistant professor of economics at UWG.

Heaghney was appointed in 2005 and is responsible for developing the annual tax revenue forecast for the state’s budget. He also advises the Governor’s office on economic policies. Professor and chair of the Department of Economics David Boldt said the featured speaker would shed light on economic issues.

“Kenneth Heaghney has particular expertise concerning the impact of the national economic slowdown and financial crisis on the Georgia economy and the state budget outlook,” said Boldt. “He also has substantial experience in the private sector and will be able to share his insights on the expected impact of the credit market problems on both small and large businesses.”

Smith will present an update on the economic outlook for the West Georgia region. Before coming to the West Georgia campus, Smith was a research associate at the Fiscal Research Center at GSU with a specialization of growth patterns in metro Atlanta and empirical analysis of state tax policies.

The event is sponsored by the UWG Department of Economics, the Richards College of Business, the Carroll County Chamber of Commerce, Southwire and First National Bank of Georgia.

Co-sponsors include AgSouth Mortgages, Carroll EMC, Citizens Bank and Trust of West Georgia, Fred O’Neal of Edward Jones and Michael Stone of Edward Jones, Systems and Methods, Inc., Tisinger Vance, PC, and Valic-Cliff England Financial Advisor.

The breakfast is widely attended with more than 300 participants expected this year. Each guest attending the conference will receive a copy of the 2007 West Georgia Regional Outlook publication.

Reservations and payments are required in advance. Cost for the event is $25 for an individual registration and $175 for a table of eight. Checks and registration requests may be sent to the University of West Georgia, the Department of Economics, 1601 Maple St., Carrollton, GA 30118. The registration deadline is Friday, Oct. 24.

For more information on the breakfast, call 678-839-6477 or e-mail Dr. David Boldt, chairman of the Department of Economics and coordinator of the event, at dboldt@westga.edu.

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Constitution Day Celebration at University of West Georgia Planned for September 17

The University of West Georgia and the Ingram Library will honor Constitution Day on Wednesday, Sept. 17, with a reception and intriguing dialogue about government, democracy and the Constitution.

The event is free and the community is invited to attend Dr. Robert M. Schaefer, professor and chair of the Department of Political Science and Planning, will lecture on “The American Constitution: A Celebratory Address (with an Admonition)” at 11 a.m. on the main floor of the library.

The presentation will focus on the establishment of American republic and the difficulty of preserving a constitution. Schaefer said the admonition is serious yet not preachy.

“This will be a political oration on behalf of the Constitution,” said Schaefer. “And to talk about the Constitution you have to talk about Rome, Athens and the difficultly of founding a good regime. The Constitution is fundamental to every aspect of our lives and it is important for citizens to give thought about what the Constitution means to this country.”

Constitution Day commemorates Sept. 17, 1787, which is the day the Constitutional Convention delegates signed the document. A federal law passed in 2004 requires all educational institutions that receive federal funds to observe Constitution Day.

Each year, the president issues a proclamation encouraging government officials and educational organizations to celebrate the ratification of the U.S. Constitution and reaffirm the rights and responsibilities of U.S. citizenship.

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