The Conference Board Reports Online Job Demand Down 66,700 in June

Modest growth in job demand evident in Florida and Georgia over last few months.


/PRNewswire/ -- Online advertised vacancies declined 66,700 to 3,294,800 in June, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted Online Data Series (HWOL)(TM) released today. In the five months since January, online labor demand has dropped a relatively modest 71,000, in sharp contrast to the 1,200,000 decline in the previous five months from August 2008 to January 2009.

"We are not out of the woods yet, but job demand has definitely stabilized since January," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "Although there is some bounce in the monthly numbers, the number of online advertised vacancies has held steady in the last three months (up a modest 35,000). Across the U.S., it is an increasingly mixed picture with some states, like Florida and Georgia, showing some modest gains, others such as New York, North Carolina holding steady, and some, like California and Pennsylvania, yet to show real improvement."

Regional and State Highlights

Modest strength seen in the South in states like Florida and Georgia.

Among the 20 most populous states, unemployed people outnumber advertised vacancies (Supply/Demand) and range from a low of roughly 2 to 1 (Maryland) to about 10 to 1 (Michigan).

The number of advertised vacancies declined in June in all four regions of the country (Northeast, South, Midwest and West), ranging from a modest drop of 3,400 in the Southern region to 18,100 in the Northeast, 13,400 in the Midwest and 10,300 in the West. "The June data shows an almost even split between the number of states with increases (24) and the number with declines (26)," said Levanon. "But there are clear signs that the employers are advertising again for workers and in some states the trend over the last few months has improved."

The June decrease of 3,400 in the Southern region reflected the contrasting movement of some of the largest states. Of these states, Florida experienced a sizeable gain, 9,200, and was followed by Georgia (2,900), North Carolina (900) and Virginia (100). Texas and Maryland both experienced declines, -5,100 and -1,400 respectively. Among the smaller states in the South, West Virginia (4,100), Kentucky (3,700) and Arkansas (1,600) increased in June. Oklahoma (-1,100) and Louisiana (-800) both declined in June and continued their relative flat trends since January.

In the Northeast, all four of the largest states posted declines in June. New York showing the largest decrease (5,300), however looking at the trend since January, job demand in New York is basically flat. New Jersey, which was down 2,600 in June, has experienced a modest increase of 1,700 over the last four months. Pennsylvania (-2,700) and Massachusetts (-2,200) decreased modestly in June, and both states continue their downward trend. Among the states with smaller populations in the region, Maine dropped a modest 100 in June and overall has shown a flat trend since January.

In the West, changes in labor demand among the four most populous states in June were split between increases in Arizona and Colorado and decreases in California and Washington. Arizona and Colorado increased 4,600 and 3,400 respectively and thereby returned to their levels at the beginning of the year, although still 40 percent below their levels in June 2008. California was down 15,900 in June and continued its downward trend. Washington reversed only a small number of last month's gains with a decline of 1,300 jobs. Among the states with smaller populations, Hawaii and New Mexico are two states in the West where the trend has been steady since January. In June, Hawaii rose 800 while New Mexico was up 1,000.

In the Midwest, Wisconsin declined by 4,300, Minnesota decreased by 2,300, and Missouri declined by 1,800. Illinois experienced the largest increase (1,900) and was followed by Michigan (800) and Ohio (700). Ohio continues to be the Midwest state where drops in labor demand have leveled off over the last couple of months.

The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. in May (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) was at 4.32, down slightly from 4.40 in April but still indicating that there are more than 4 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy. Among the states, the highest Supply/Demand rate is in Michigan (9.95), or nearly 10 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy. Other states where there are over 6 unemployed for every advertised vacancy include Indiana (7.73), Kentucky (7.33), Ohio (6.54), North Carolina (6.49), and Mississippi (6.30). North Dakota (1.41) and Nebraska (1.44) have some of the lowest rates.

It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rate only provides a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies.

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